S&P 500 downswing refusal would prove temporary, and the pinched consumer retail sales data will keep serving as a recessionary reminder. In this five-part tweet series, I detailed why yesterday‘s bullish achievements aren‘t changing the bearish medium-term picture (more breathing room once this opex week is over) – in terms of the degree of positive economic surprises, weakness in sectoral overview with retreating financials and other typical bull market bellwethers.

HD also disappointed, and the language used confirms more consumer weakness ahead. Then, there is the debt ceiling to be milked for what it‘s worth. Keep in mind this remarkable array of bearish factors.

Let‘s dive into the individual markets with extra USD commentary.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
 

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

Today should play out on a gently risk-off note, bringing another close below 4,136, but without the necessary acceleration coming with the 4,0xx handles. 4,115 remains still hard to break and requires more leadership from bonds such as when Fed speakers later today keep the focus on the unended inflation fight and all that brings.

This modest improvement won‘t be enough to power S&P 500 to 4,149 and beyond today, really not. Conversely, it would be erased shortly, and the advance-decline line with new highs new lows would hint at another false dawn within this long range.

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