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QuantumScape’s starting to look pretty interesting as an investment, especially now that they’re shifting toward a lighter, more flexible business model, as I have covered before. Instead of pouring tons of cash into manufacturing, they’re leaning on licensing their tech—thanks in large part to their deal with Volkswagen’s PowerCo. That move cuts down a lot of the risk and stretches their cash reserves well into late 2028.

At the heart of it all is their solid-state lithium-metal battery tech. Their QSE-5 cell has shown some impressive numbers—high energy density, strong safety performance, and it charges fast, a big plus for EVs. Now that their Cobra production process is up and running, they’re gearing up to produce more B1 sample cells in 2025, with plans for a real-world demo the year after. If things go according to plan, we could see them start bringing in real licensing revenue after 2026.

They’ve also been smart with their spending—both CapEx and OpEx are trending down—and they’ve got enough cash on hand to stay focused on growing through partnerships rather than building everything themselves. Plus, their licensing model isn’t tied to just one automaker. They’re already talking to other OEMs, which could open up more revenue streams down the line.

All in all, it’s a pretty asymmetric setup: there’s definitely risk, but if they hit their targets, the potential upside could be pretty significant. Let’s break this down.
 

QSE-5 Cell – A Real Breakthrough in Battery Tech

QuantumScape’s QSE-5 cell isn’t just another battery—it’s a big step forward for electric vehicles. Let’s break down why it matters. First, the energy density hits 844 Wh/L, which is way above what you see with most lithium-ion batteries (usually around 600 to 700 Wh/L). What that means in practice? More range without making the battery bigger.

Charging speed is another highlight. This thing can go from low to almost full in just over 12 minutes, which is a huge deal if you’re tired of long charging stops. Plus, it handles heat like a champ, staying stable up to 300°C. Regular lithium-ion batteries often tap out somewhere between 174°C and 185°C. And if you live somewhere cold? No worries—it still works down to -30°C. It also pushes out a lot of power without sacrificing how much energy it can store.
 

Cracking the Code on Separators – The Raptor and Cobra Processes

Now, let’s talk about what’s going on inside the battery. The separator is a key part—it keeps the positive and negative sides apart but still lets the magic (ions) happen. Making ceramic separators for solid-state batteries is tough, especially when you need to scale up.

QuantumScape tackled this with two big process upgrades. First came Raptor. It was good for early prototypes like the B0 cells. It already cut the separator heat-treatment time way down—from days to just hours.

Now they’ve rolled out Cobra, and it’s a game-changer. This process gets things done in minutes, not hours. It’s faster, more efficient, and produces better-quality separators, all while taking up less space. Cobra is what makes large-scale production possible, which is exactly what’s needed to take this tech to market.

The plan? By 2025, QuantumScape wants everything running on Cobra and will use it to ramp up B1 sample production.
 

From B0 to B1 – Making More, Faster

The early B0 cells already showed that QuantumScape’s tech works. They were made in small numbers with the Raptor process and hit all the right performance marks. But the challenge now is to scale it.

That’s where B1 cells come in. Set for production in 2025, these will be built in higher volumes, this time with Cobra. The performance should be on par with B0, but now the focus is on making the process repeatable, automated, and ready for partners. Think of it like creating a “how-to” guide that includes equipment, recipes, and software so others can manufacture these cells at scale. B1 cells are also key to the planned 2026 demo with a major customer.
 

Tech Transfer – Letting Partners Do the Heavy Lifting

QuantumScape doesn’t want to build its own giant factories—that’s expensive and time-consuming. Instead, they’re working on a full technology package for partners like Volkswagen’s PowerCo. This includes everything from machine designs and materials lists to quality control systems. Basically, it’s a plug-and-play system that allows partners to start producing QSE-5 cells at scale without reinventing the wheel.

Right now, over 150 people from QuantumScape and PowerCo are teaming up to make this all happen. They’re putting the final touches on Cobra, automating production lines, and figuring out how to scale this tech for real-world use.
 

Financials

QuantumScape’s first quarter of 2025 came in about as expected, with the company keeping a tight grip on spending while continuing to move forward with plans to ramp up production using its newer Cobra separator process. Financially, they’re still in solid shape, holding plenty of cash, and they didn’t see any need to change their full-year outlook.

They spent $5.8 million on capital projects during the quarter, mostly upgrading facilities and getting equipment ready to support higher-volume B1 sample runs with Cobra. That number’s set to climb over the rest of the year as they bring in more high-capacity gear, get ready for the QSE-5 B1 launch, and start working with more potential customers. Even with that expected uptick, they’re sticking to their original CapEx target of somewhere between $45 million and $75 million for the full year.

On the expense side, they reported $123.6 million in GAAP operating costs for Q1, ending up with a net loss of $114.4 million. It sounds like they’re not expecting much movement in earnings per share throughout 2025.

Their adjusted EBITDA loss came in at $64.6 million for the quarter, right in line with what they had anticipated. For the whole year, they are assuming adjusted EBITDA loss somewhere between $250 million and $280 million.

Their cash reserves are now $860.3 million in cash, down from $910.8 million at the end of last year. That drop was mostly due to ongoing investments in getting production scaled up. Even so, they’re confident the current cash pile should last into the second half of 2028. And if they bring in more money through customer prepayments or raise funds in the markets, that runway could stretch out even further.
 

Valuing QuantumScape: Key Peer Groups for Solid-State Battery and Licensing Models

Trying to figure out what QuantumScape (QS) is worth isn’t as easy as comparing it to your standard battery maker. For starters, they’re not even in the game of mass production yet. They’re still pre-revenue, mostly focused on developing their solid-state battery tech. But what really sets them apart is where they’re headed—they’re not trying to build huge factories, but instead aiming to license their technology. So, if we’re going to find the right peer group for valuation, we’ve got to think a bit outside the box.

Let’s start with companies that are somewhat in the same space—other solid-state battery developers. These guys are dealing with the same kinds of technical and scaling hurdles. Solid Power (SLDP) is a good one to look at—they’re working on solid-state batteries too, with a mix of licensing and making the stuff themselves. Then there’s SES AI (SES), focused on lithium-metal batteries, and they’ve already teamed up with big car companies. These firms give us a glimpse into what it looks like to be in QuantumScape’s shoes, trying to push a new kind of battery to market.

But here’s where it gets more interesting. Because QuantumScape isn’t planning to manufacture at scale, it makes sense to look at businesses that make their money by licensing technology. Think about ARM Holdings—they don’t build chips, but they design them and let others pay to use those designs. Same goes for InterDigital and Rambus Inc. They live off royalties from their tech. These companies show how you can have a high-margin business without having to own the whole production chain.

Now, don’t forget about the early-stage clean tech crowd. QuantumScape’s still at a stage where scaling up is one of its biggest challenges, and there are others in the same boat. Names like Enovix (ENVX) and Amprius Technologies (AMPX) come to mind.

Source: YCharts

QuantumScape is currently trading at 1.82 its book value, which puts it ahead of other battery tech names like Solid Power (SLDP)and SES AI (SES).But when you stack it up against companies built around tech licensing, it’s a different story. Firms like InterDigital trade at 5.59x, Rambus comes in at 4.24x, and Universal Display typically falls somewhere in the 8 to 10x range. And then there’s ARM Holdings, sitting much higher at 16.45x.

So what does that tell us? Well, QuantumScape’s higher valuation compared to other early-stage battery developers probably comes down to a few things: they’ve made more technical progress, they’ve got that key partnership with PowerCo backing their business model, and financially, they’re in a stronger spot—with enough cash to keep things running into 2028. But at the same time, they’re still valued well below pure licensing and IP-focused companies, which suggests the market hasn’t fully factored in the potential for future royalty-based revenue.

If they can successfully scale their Cobra production process, hit their B1 sample targets, and bring more OEMs on board, there’s a good chance the market will start to see them in a different light. At that point, it wouldn’t be surprising to see QS trading more in line with companies like Enovix, Amprius, or InterDigital—maybe around 4 to 5 times book value.
 

Key Risks Facing QuantumScape’s Capital-Light Licensing Model

One of the biggest risks for QuantumScape (QS) right now comes from its reliance on partners, especially PowerCo (Volkswagen), to take its technology from the lab to the real world. If PowerCo runs into delays, or even backs out altogether, it could throw QuantumScape’s entire commercialization timeline off track. Right now, PowerCo is the only confirmed licensing partner, which means QS is exposed to single-customer risk until more deals are signed.

Even though QuantumScape is among the frontrunners in the solid-state lithium-metal race for now, that lead isn’t guaranteed. Other big players—think Toyota, Samsung SDI, or CATL—could introduce alternative solid-state or hybrid battery solutions that leapfrog QuantumScape’s tech. Plus, translating lab success into mass production isn’t easy. The B0 samples worked well in controlled environments, but scaling up to B1 samples could bring new problems.

On another note, QuantumScape’s path to significant revenue isn’t immediate. The planned 2026 demo will be low-volume, and it’s likely that real revenue generation won’t pick up until 2027 or later. If they hit snags with Cobra production or can’t get B1 samples right, that timeline could slip further, pushing profitability even further out. There’s also a chance that demand could shift.

Though QS has cash to carry it into 2028, it’s still burning through capital to fund R&D and scale its operations. If delays happen, they might need to raise more money, which could lead to shareholder dilution, especially if market conditions make fundraising tougher.
 

Wrapping up

There are several risks, but I think their knowledge base is very solid, while their proof of concept with the Cobra production process will have demand from OEMs that need the technology for their products.

That said, the business model pivot can reprice the book value of the company to a value closer to InterDigital current book value multiple. That could triple the current market capitalization for QuantumScape.

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