Nvidia: A Little Worrisome
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We said in May 2023 that we expected Nvidia to turn into the "Stock Market's AI Darling." And boy has it. [Read what we said back then and see how it's turned out.]
Nvidia has become the world's largest company by market cap. And AI is front and center on everybody's radar now. The stock is up multiples since our bullish call back then.
But now there are strange warning signals that something's not quite right.
CNBC quoted us that we had some concerns recently that Nvidia's key Datacenter growth was slowing.
One of the reasons that prompted our recent downgrade of Nvidia was that AI related memory price increases were starting to slow. I don't understand how AI can be booming but memory slow. Typically, memory sells alongside pretty much everything tech. As tech goes so typically goes memory. Tech and memory usually move in lockstep.
We warned subscribers to watch out ahead of Micron's last earnings because of this. Micron was hit on last earnings. We had downgraded Micron after the previous earnings pop back in September.
But for some strange reason, which we think we know why, AI memory is showing weakness. That should raise a few red flags for investing in AI for 2025. It does for us.
As recently as today, Trendforce reported that AI-related memory, HBM prices, are now even expected to be down in Q1. I ask again, how can AI be flying and memory be weak.
Something is not quite right out there.
We've seen other data recently that confirms this for us. There could be a hiccup in growth for AI in 2025. Memory prices seem to be confirming that.
We think there are multiple fundamental driving factors that could slow AI growth in 2025. If so, that should affect Nvidia and many AI-related plays. And since Nvidia is now so important to the overall market, that can affect the overall stock market as well.
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