Netflix Inc.: Our Calculation Of Intrinsic Value

black flat screen tv turned on displaying 11

Image Source: Unsplash
 

As part of a new series, each week we typically conduct a DCF on one of the companies in our screens. This week we thought we’d take a look at one of the stocks that is not currently in our screens, Netflix Inc (NFLX).
 

Profile

Netflix is one of the world’s leading streaming entertainment services with over 260 million paid memberships across 190 countries. The company produces and licenses a broad range of content—including series, documentaries, and feature films—across numerous genres and languages. Known for its data-driven content strategy and global scale, Netflix continues to invest heavily in original programming to retain subscribers and expand its share in the highly competitive digital entertainment space. It’s also exploring adjacent revenue streams like advertising and gaming to diversify beyond subscriptions.
 

DCF Analysis

Inputs

  • Discount Rate: 11%
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 4%
  • WACC: 11%

Forecasted Free Cash Flows (FCFs) in billions

Year FCF ($B) Present Value ($B)
2025 7.0 6.31
2026 8.2 6.66
2027 9.5 6.91
2028 10.7 7.04
2029 12.0 7.06

Total Present Value of FCFs = 34.00 billion

Terminal Value Calculation

Using the perpetuity growth model:

Terminal Value = (12.0 × 1.04) / (0.11 – 0.04)
= 12.48 / 0.07 = 178.29 billion

Present Value of Terminal Value

= 178.29 / (1.11)^5 = 106.06 billion

Enterprise Value Calculation

= 34.00 + 106.06 = 140.06 billion

Net Debt Calculation

Net Debt = Total Debt – Total Cash
= 15.58 – 9.58 = 6.00 billion

Equity Value Calculation

Equity Value = Enterprise Value – Net Debt
= 140.06 – 6.00 = 134.06 billion

Per-Share DCF Value

Shares Outstanding = 427.76 million
Per-Share Value = 134.06 / 0.42776 = $313.39
 

Conclusion

DCF Value Current Price Margin of Safety
$313.39 $973.03 -67.80%

Based on the DCF valuation, Netflix appears overvalued. The estimated intrinsic value of $313.39 per share is significantly below the current market price of $973.03, resulting in a -67.80% Margin of Safety.

This suggests that Netflix is trading well above its intrinsic value based on fundamental cash flow analysis.


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