Multiple Cuts Ahead

By Monica Kingsley of MonicaKingsley.co

Thursday, August 1, 2024 10:23 AM EST

S&P 500 did gap bullishly, putting a profitable end to prior day‘s bearish Nasdaq ride. And just like that, tech with semis started to outperform thanks to ASMLinsisting on its China chip exports. ADP employment change coming well below expectations provided more boost to equities (Russell 2000 was still slated to underperform tech in line with my call a couple of days ago), and the risk-on positioning for FOMC went on, encompassing gold, silver, oil and copper alike.

Powell didn‘t cut, but didn‘t disappoint either – my takeaway had been of a dovish conference and statement snippets boosting the odds of a 50bp Sep cut considerably (I‘ve talked lately this becoming an increasingly realistic possibility, the odds of which are now still below 20%). Very nice opportunity for both swing and intraday gains (playing ES and RTY), very fine setup even though I think the Fed will be behind the market expectations for a rate cut (series thereof).

The weekly roadmap presented premium Saturday, keeps panning out nicely (and QCOM earnings worked out well too).

(Click on image to enlarge)

S&P 500 and Nasdaq