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The SPX Futures fell by about 0.1% towards $4202 and still trades rotational between the extremes of the current highs waiting for any hints from the dept ceiling talks.

• US stock futures climbed as President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy expressed cautious optimism about reaching a debt ceiling deal after their meeting on Monday.
• Dow fell 0.42% in regular trading on Monday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw marginal gains.
• Technology, real estate, and financials outperformed the market, while consumer staples, materials, and energy declined.
• Treasury Secretary Yellen warned of the risk of default by June 1 if the debt ceiling issue is not resolved.
• Fed’s Kashkari stated that the decision on a June rate pause or hike is a close call, while St. Louis Fed President Bullard suggested the possibility of another rate increase this year.
• The dollar index stabilized around 103.3, supported by expectations of higher interest rates and cautious anticipation of debt ceiling updates.
• Yields on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to their highest level since mid-March, influenced by the debt ceiling impasse and monetary policy outlook.
• Negotiations on the debt ceiling are ongoing, with Biden, McCarthy, and Yellen expressing optimism but without a finalized agreement.
• Yellen warned of the likelihood that Treasury will be unable to meet all obligations by early June without raising or suspending the debt limit.
• Market participants assign an 80% probability that the Fed will maintain rates steady in June.
• Traders remain attentive to comments from Fed officials regarding future monetary policy actions.

The E-mini S&P 500 experienced a balanced price range on the daily interval, trading above the prior daily bracket highs. This suggests that investors are making risk adjustments, with the potential emergence of core sellers and profit-taking leading to rotational behavior. Traders are closely observing extreme levels to determine counter scenarios.

The volume structure indicates a balanced profile, slightly resembling a p-shaped profile, with emphasis on the point of control (POC) level. The lower distribution of the profile offers support, while a move below the POC could signal further selling pressure.

Calculations for the bias are mixed, with slightly bearish signals from positive volatility. The market’s tighter balanced price range contributes to its rotational nature as risk and trade positions are adjusted.

3 Weeks Ago

Market focus has shifted away from banking concerns and recession discussions, turning attention toward the debt ceiling. Any indications regarding the progress of these discussions could lead the market to drop or soar, influencing overall sentiment.

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