US Futures Flat As Debt Ceiling Concerns Linger

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The SPX Futures rose slightly by about 0.1% towards $4209 in the European trading session by mixed and rotational trading as traders waited on a resolution of the debt ceiling talks.

  • President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy are meeting to continue negotiations, following a failed meeting on Friday.
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed low confidence in the ability to pay all US bills by June 15th.
  • Micron Technology shares fell over 4% after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using their chips.
  • Apple stocks were down about 1% after a downgrade from Loop Capital.
  • Meta (formerly Facebook) stocks declined nearly 1% after being fined a record €1.2 billion by European privacy regulators.
  • The dollar index slid towards 103 for the second consecutive session as traders awaited updates on the debt ceiling negotiations and assessed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen’s warnings about a potential US debt default added to investor caution.
  • Fed Chair Powell acknowledged high inflation but suggested it may not be necessary to raise interest rates further due to banking sector stress.
  • Market expectations suggest the Fed may pause it's tightening campaign next month.
  • Investors are anticipating several US economic reports this week, including a second reading for first-quarter GDP and the personal consumption expenditure inflation gauge.

The E-mini S&P 500 began the day trading within the current balanced price range, with the market showing a potential dip into higher extremes observed on Friday. This opening may result in some selling pressure influencing the market.

The profile structure indicates a double distribution profile, suggesting the possibility of selling activity around the low volume area or upper point of control (POC) extreme. The previous VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) close level coincides with the low-value area (LVA) and could serve as a selling point, depending on the auction during the opening of New York trading.

From a median-term perspective, market participants may maintain a downside outlook, with a focus on identifying areas for absorption to liquidate larger long positions. This could potentially create a downside imbalance. However, any positive developments regarding the resolution of the debt ceiling issue could propel the market to new highs.

With a slightly positive volatility index, there may be some shorting of the market near the mentioned VWAP close level. Conversely, buyers might await opportunities around the lower value extreme of the session, contingent upon the outcome of forthcoming talks.


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