Market Briefing For Tuesday, February 20
Jitters on Expiration are insignificant; as alternating moves weren't weird at all, as this isn't about earnings, interest rates or moderating inflation or not.
This was a logical hesitation ahead of a 'long weekend' that has military plus holiday overtones, and on top of that it was the February nominal Expiration.
I suspect next week will have a more robust attempt to rebound the S&P, but it is high enough and as suggested likely in a sort of 'trading range' for awhile now; and that's healthy. Meanwhile we won't focus on Energy (strong) or the Materials and Industrial areas (also firm), which also helps broadening ideas. Of course a 'tamer' PCE would help reignite some of the speculative fervor.
Our favorites for speculators are of course in the small-cap realm. Not that it's wise for most, but run-up's in some 'Warrants' beyond moves of the common stocks of the same companies, reflects the 'excitement' investors have, and it is whether or not the pundits and analysts wish to discourage participation.
I've observed that a longer period of adjustment, digestion, or however one is able to refer to this choppy trading range, would be healthy in setting-up what we think will be broadly-defined S&P holding and underlying broadening-out of market participation into the Spring season. No change in our view on this.
What might be noted is that Softbank on Friday came out with a proposed 100 Billion Ai project (I use lower case sometimes on the I in AI just so you know it's not a symbol but a reference to .. AI). The Softbank commitment openly is intended to compete with Nvidia, and that's fascinating. Media hasn't noted it as yet, beyond the recognition of a financial commitment for the Ai realm.
Bottom line: on Expiration Friday, you could sense tension in several stocks. As far as trading range S&P or neutral VIX shuffling there's no view change.
Enjoy the holiday weekend and look for a number of small stocks to try again.
More By This Author:
Market Briefing For Thursday, February 15
Market Briefing For Wednesday, February 14
Market Briefing For Monday, February 12
This is an excerpt from Gene Inger's Daily Briefing, which typically includes one or two videos as well as more charts and analyses. You can follow Gene on Twitter more