Seasonal patterns have largely been adhered to by the S&P, led by tech mega-caps primarily. Perhaps that's why so many strategists and technicians continue to emphasize 'risk' in the next couple of months.

I don't disagree with the premise; with one big exception. The broad majority of lesser-than-big-cap stocks barely participated; so can erode if S&P falters as widely thought, but not much can crash the market aside from mega-caps.

That's the reason we have been resistant to get enthused about the big-caps, even when we were calling for upside moves such as from June into July. (We own several from far lower prices to retain core postions, so of course there's short-term risk; but plan was and remains to leave them alone; and add only if we get a big crunch.)

So far the idea was 'heavy Put buying; heavy ETF short-selling' negativity for the seasonal patterns, and thus a crowded bearish side of the ledger. To me it was, as noted in recent days, a set-up for a rally in this pre-Labor-Day week; even if not particularly sustainable, and despite techs not rallying after Nvidia (which oddly we don't own, having preferred AMD for years (since 16-17).

(At presstime the talk if of 2 million being ordered to evacuate.. so far 1.5 mil., as the Emergency Management folks now lean towards this as a Category 4. The track would need to shift West to threaten Mobile more than Tampa; with Tallahassee and Pensacola almost inevitably going to see significant effects. Talk of 8-12' storm surge anywhere from Sarasota to the Big Bend. Floods... I'm making a point of this as low Hillsborough County is ordered evacuated.)

At the moment, risks to a run-up in Oil prices are minimized because Idalia (who comes up with these names?) as of the moment in heading into a fairly populated (retirees mostly) area with Tallahassee as a 'bulls-eye' if it centers the indicated track. Sad for the West Coast of Florida; but 'if' it skirts Tampa, and doesn't turn in like Ian did and hit Fort Myers, Naples, Sarasota, Port Charlotte and so on, well, it will be East of Oil platforms.

That also means less chance for refinery damage or shutdowns, and Oil price increases will be somewhat tempered as a result. Now if it turns right, that's of concern to me personally. I am not evacuating, but if it makes a bee-line this way, I'll likely check-in to a nearby Marriott property, as I did last year for Ian. I hasten to add that I'll do the regular reports and 'X-rays' (tweets) if I can, and in the case of a major storm, that's more a function of internet connectivity as contrasted to my own back-up systems or plans. It should be fine here as this is where people go from the Tampa area to evacuate; but this year is extreme.

(An hour ago the track looked slightly East of this; then now West. Wobbles.)

By the way, by extreme what I meant was global weather. Delve into and you may know that the Earth's 'tilt' has changed because of polar melting. Sure it was the summer from hell for heat and traveling; but should ease a bit.

I have friends on a cruise from near Rome; and today's plans in Capri (near Naples) got cancelled due to strong storms in the Med. Well I hinted at getting out of here for a bit during hurricane season; and I am. Flying to Barcelona in a couple weeks for a one week cruise including Cannes, Palma and Ibiza... (I know . . too calm for me ahaha). At this time I am not planning to visit Berlin (can't take IFA trade show walking), or family in Paris or Bordeaux, although I would if there were more time to do so or if a string of storms nears Florida.

It will be my first airplane flight in 4 years, which seems improbable for me. Of course it was Covid, lockdown, then I got sick; and then last year's multiple of heart procedures. So I'm a bit apprehensive, but it's time to try living just a bit. I'll be on a new ship with SpaceX 'Starlink', so perhaps good internet for an abbreviated report on most days will be available. Trading is often subdued in the days between the Jewish holidays; and that includes when I'm traveling.

Anyway enough about me; but that's the plan ... I usually go to Europe for 3-5 weeks in the Summer (back in the day); but this is not those days; unless we get a series of hurricanes, in which case I'll stay there longer and visit Paris. I recall once I was in Berlin; a storm delayed flying to Florida, so I did the UK.

Market 'X'-ray (in-sum): the idea of 'not' shorting even when calling for S&P shakeouts has yet again proven to be fairly wise; given the comeback and positioning of S&P now. The broader Industrials are behaving variously; and it's a rally we looked for, without much enthusiasm but some daily potential.

Market is tenaciously likely to hold traction for a bit, soon pitted against what everyone's watching: the S&P 50-Day Moving Average. If it gets through that, a little short-squeeze could levitate stocks irrespective of rationalization about September-October risks, that the bears will trot-out and we won't disagree. I have tried to emphasize that's down the road, after this 'Hail Mary' effort(s).

This rebound is on target, as we wish the hurricane was off-track. Variable for sure with the storm, and with the market; but odds favor a bit more upside that has trepidation because a majority of technicians were too bearish yet again.

I'm just going to share the charts and video; you know where things stand and I will be here in the morning, as not evacuating (nor is there a need to here).

Bottom line: probablities favor more rallying efforts; a fight at the 50-DMA and then we'll see. None of this changes the September challenges.

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