Market Briefing For Monday, Sept. 29, 2025

A 'worry wall' - can be a tough hurdle to overcome, if it's formidable enough. I think this one has been; especially as many analysts and even the Fed Chair believe the market is 'exuberant', when it reality it's sort of timid ... including the lack of enthusiasm towards extensions in the 'magnificent seven' types that of course helped get the S&P (and other Indexes) to these high levels.

Because (as I've often written) so many money managers stayed skeptical all year, and didn't even take advantage of the 'tariff panic' in the late Winter. For many it was disdain for Trump policies they should have differentiated when it came to investing (all about capital appreciation not second-guessing politics).

As to the big Tuesday military 'conference'; aside firing staff, probably there's a discussion about focusing on 'Fortress America' as we used to call it, and the threat from China (after that military parade; although just looking at any of China's 'drone shows' for entertainment; you can deductively see military applications of such 'swarming' software being utilized; more advanced than the otherwise nice to see drone shows here; such as at DisneyWorld. But an attack with drone swarms is no mickey mouse event.

The United States is in an expansion phase; there is a concerted effort to get back (and to some degree preserve) American hegemony in technology; not just global politics (might even be retreating some from the latter); and this is not broadly discussed but understood by most citizens that realize this Nation is a 'technocratic society' that has to grow to thrive and not merely survive (so some push that into political agendas; but there is no alternative and as such debt service is 'unsustainable' if we're unable to grow our way out of situations that were created by outsourcing excessively for almost half a Century.

If that is a political view; it's one I've had since that old keynote I gave in Boca Raton back in 1976 (to the American Footwear Assoc.); and I maintained that lobbyists and greed (saving overhead but costing Americans jobs) directly as counter-policies to prosperity in the United States. Sure we inflated/borrowed our way toward muddling through it and growing; on paper ... but look at overall infrastructure and the proportion of people struggling; and you see the reality.

I certainly understand concern ahead of the possible Government Shut-Down; as well as the weird unexplained 'congregation' of Flag Officers this coming Tuesday at Quantico ... will they be a victim of something; like mass firing? Is it part of preparation and re-organization before a major new war? Of does it (in this case my preference) acknowledge the challenge 'in our Continental USA' of drone or hacking cyber risks; requiring response including stocks we own.

When I say 'preference' I mean the obviousness of drone penetration which included (still) unidentified drones over Quantico & Norfolk months ago that have never been explained to the American people (probably because it really does expose a vulnerability to our society; and may have been launched from a larger cargo ship or tanker offshore and you know the Navy knows if it's so).

Well we're in the right tickers if it involves autonomy, battle management or a slew of drone companies; a couple of whose shares have perked-up a bit. Do keep in mind the Federal Fiscal Year starts Wednesday; the day 'after' the mysterious Pete Hegseth Pentagon-convened leadership gathering. It's also Yom Kippur eve; and don't forget the inference of upside behavior thereafter.

Market X-ray: The market is 'in-between' Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur, and so far is behaving in the 'neither here-nor-there' behavior or seasonal 'old adage' ways that would contribute to jitters that aren't definitive.

I don't know if the so-called 'AI wall of strength' will break ... so for those who believe that, they need to differentiate between old-line and upcoming trends. I think there has been too much concentration in huge data-centers; and while (as we discussed on 'The Quantum Bull' YouTube channel the other day), it's not time to focus on those companies that are over-committed financially to AI hardware in ways that aren't necessary (to wit: power and construction).

We're all about 'new-era' tickers (or next-gen) tending to believe most present 'old-era' technologies are fine for now; but reflect equity gains already mostly made not ahead. Some will adapt rather than fight the future; and NVDA was a good example as Jensen trashed Quantum, then later embraced it. Even a Palantir may act like they soar over BigBear.ai; but they have a partnership.

So there you are; 'worry wall' and lots of chatter in financial media, whereas a lot more talk than action. I won't take time to belabor the obvious; like Boeing getting an FAA waiver; or the PCE not being problematic; but that's all good. I think it's neurosis that has prevailed all-along, relating to overvalued Indexes, primarily from a handful of leaders that are in some cases fading from glory. 

Now there is no alternative but to heavily prod and compel American industry. So that is why (unless you are against the Country) you can't really be bearish if you want this cycle of investment and 'Golden Age' to arrive and thrive, and that is regardless of sentiments (for, against or mixed) regarding Pres. Trump.

So sure, NVDA will get a bit more into Quantum; the equity market will have to cull-out the new-era Quantum or combination (hybrid) 'Gate' & 'Annealing' computers; and all of it will (I believe) contribute to better power efficiency and lower needs for the gargantuan data-center power-needs as typically built. It's tough to segment whether Quantum & 'data-analytics' stocks can advance if the backdrop crumbles from failure to understand this transition aspect; but if you look this week, Quantum tickers held well, while the old-lineup was shaky.

US: certainly understand concern ahead of possible Government Shut-Down; as well as the weird unexplained 'congregation' of Flag Officers this coming Tuesday at Quantico... will they be a victim of something; like mass firing? Is it part of preparation and re-organization before a major new war? 

Bottom-line: we're in the right tickers if it involves autonomy, data-analytics, battle management or a slew of drone companies; a couple of whose shares perked-up a bit. Keep in mind the Federal Fiscal Year starts Wednesday; the day 'after' the mysterious Pete Hegseth-convened Pentagon leadership gathering. It's also Yom Kippur eve; and don't forget the inference of upside behavior thereafter. That doesn't negate seasonal S&P concerns at all; just points out the dichotomy that's set-up; in possibly a split-personality market.

Most important takeaway: new Federal Fiscal Year starts Wednesday.


More By This Author:

Market Briefing For Monday, Sept. 22, 2025
Market Briefing For Thursday, Sept. 18
Market Briefing For Monday, Sept. 8

This is an excerpt from Gene's Daily Briefing (distributed nightly), which typically includes videos as well as more charts and analysis. You can subscribe  more

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