Market Briefing For Monday, May 20, 2024
'Demand Management' is a term I'll coin to describe Friday's action. Not so bad considering how high the S&P extended the recent moves. What I infer is the lack of significant selling in big-caps, and alternative shuffles in the small.
There's no particular explanation for why even small-caps can alternate with up-and-then down repeated moves .. often on fairly high volume churning with little or no positive or negative behavior of significance.
There is risk aggression; because almost everything is going up; and that's an outlier usually. Hence selectively higher but be situationally aware just ahead.
So the significance of all this is the resilience of this market; some prominent bond guys actually getting bullish on equities; and an S&P that's fully valued; hence the emphasis should remain on the undervalued (where they exist) and under-performing (if their business model and liquidity is ample) speculations.
It's not easy; but it is a stock picker's market when the Indexes are so high. If it can move higher in this 'election year', ok.. that's part of why no bearishness of a protracted nature from us, because it's not appropriate given the activity. The narrative shifts, and we may or may not get a 'peace dividend' from Oil in retreat; but we're not there yet, and Oil demand tends to increase in Summer. With overall prices as high as they are, society is adjusted to higher fuel costs for now; and we'll see how this evolves during summer.
Market X-ray: there are wild cards out there. One might be 'why' has Biden proposed the first Presidential Debate at the earliest date 'ever'.. in June. The only school of thought is a presumption that he'll somehow prevail, or maybe it is the Democratic National Committee that wants to see how that goes; as it would still leave time (in theory) to have alternatives ahead of the Convention.
I also have no opinion as to how that would impact the market; but clearly the tone seems supportive so far, and the market's not fearful of Trump either.
Meanwhile the economy is picking up a bit in the Industrial realm; while the consumers are still alive, with delinquencies not horrible among the public, but not resolved in areas like commercial property, especially office buildings.
Speaking of delinquencies, as I've written, I think that's a prospect especially in 'coastal' Florida, where a particularly rough hurricane season approaching potential historical 'frequency' of storms, is nearing. Doesn't say where, but if a large number (over a dozen) are generated, chances of one or more hitting a metro area multiply, and ... downtown Miami is barely 3-4' above sea level ... just because billionaires built fabulous structures doesn't deny the risk, as we know from the past, 'Mother Nature' can own it all if she decides to do so.
One blow (but not from a storm) to political pressures for 'all' cars made in the US to be 'Union Made' (especially future EVs as contrasted with imported and / or Chinese cars, came after Friday's close, with the Mercedes-Benz South Carolina and in this case Alabama workers, voting clearly to 'not' unionize.
Particularly in the South, where managements pay workers well 'and' offer a profit sharing or stock option way of participating, there's understanding of the pitfalls of being a union-shop; not just the benefits; especially when business is treating the workers as 'working with them', rather than 'for them'. Among all companies in the South, probably Delta Airlines best embodies management being on the same page as workers, though there is some union infiltration of course by way of the Airline Pilots Association but not broadly like others.
Bottom line: pause-to-refresh might describe action now, amid confusion as analysts debate how much higher the S&P could reach-for. Personally I don't see much higher; unless the breadth participation continues improving. Very much a selective scenario, with no assurances.
So holding stocks from much lower levels (like AMD), or even from levels of buys long ago (like Ford without enthusiasm); or not too excited about upside in many others.
Internally, companies have to think about their posture and competitive rank, and not get too cute about 'financial engineering' ... always try to readjust (it applies to several companies) interests of management to align with that of shareholders, and also profit-sharing with employees; to create win-win-wins.
More next week as, barring bad news, S&P will try again. It's over 5300 now and next week we've got the Microsoft Developers Conference and Nvidia. If Nvidia margins contract people will get negative; and then be reminded that the new Ai chip isn't widely available yet; so that's going to be tricky to trade; and we won't; but it can inflict volatility in the 'concentric circles' that became a bunch of players in the realm.
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Market Briefing For Thursday, May 16
Market Briefing For Wednesday, May 15
Market Briefing For Tuesday, May 14
This is an excerpt from Gene Inger's Daily Briefing, which typically includes one or two videos as well as more charts and analyses. You can follow Gene on Twitter more