Big 'trade-talks' this weekend could make or break early-week action; with of course a few other events churning just-off-stage behind the velvet curtains essentially. So whether it's 'trade', the Middle-East or even Ukraine/Russia; for sure a lot of variables are 'attempting' to gel at least for temporary solutions.

This weekend I'll not belabor the possibilities, as you are well acquainted with the ongoing challenges; as well as the market's ability to hold together within, essentially, is a range-bound resistance area for the S&P. Critical junctures in a handful of big-caps are at-risk; almost regardless of political developments, that impact the economy or trade. I'm thinking of Google as still vulnerable; of course for the reasons we've regularly noted about a secular shift away from 'core Search' to Ai / Chat; and suspect YouTube isn't enough to offset that; at the same time it benefits the leaders in 'Generative AI' and so forth. It's risky for Apple too ... we have been concerned about both for months; but as in S&P and all big Indexes, it becomes impactful on market image as to big-caps. For us it's not particularly meaningful aside psychology; but we'll keep an eye out.

Oil was stronger this week; probably as 'recession' belief isn't as widespread as media or some politicians would have you believe. However, things are on the 'worse' side 'in' China, with a number of small bank failures there. All that has limited impact on American markets; but stabilizes the Dollar and might be a factor in stimulating Chinese flexibility in their posturing with the U.S.A.

So I don't know if it will take another catalyst or not to stimulate compromise on either side; but I do see some influences hinting at negotiating; rather than being stubborn belligerents, which both side sometimes do 'as if' such macho stuff means anything about buttressing actual sovereignty protection.

Perhaps there should be more focus on preventing an evolving India-Pakistan conflagration, since Pakistan is large 'armed' by China these days, and may have shot down Indian Rafael (French) jet fighters with Chinese J-20 jets.

Market X-ray: investors and managers digest the trade prospects and argue over the outcomes; while we have focused on selected non-big-cap stocks for the most part; seeking to stay out of the political circus center-ring antics.

At the same time we figured 'rabbits would be pulled-out of hats; and leave us with a somewhat positive spin on trade and tariffs going into the weekend, at least. Huge gambles are involved, but everyone knows that; so if stocks were restrained Friday by Trump talking of 80% instead of 145%; that's irrelevant as it just says 'lower', and of course is merely an obvious negotiating tome.

The President late Friday said he would 'not be very disappointed' if Secy. Bessent fails to return from Geneva with a deal with China. So there's that. If there's a broader message in this, it's that although the US is willing to climb down from the very high stakes it started this trade war with, it may not budge on the universal tariff and it wants a clear stake in strategic supply chains. In a sense the 10% tariff level is sort of an American version of a 'value added' or VAT tax such as prevalent in Europe; although nobody will term it as that, for one reason, it's not on all goods, but just non-exempt imported ones. Tricky.

Bottom-line: 'possibly' the majority of players fear missing what could be the greenest of days in the stock market, if there is an agreement in Switzerland this weekend more than they fear seeing a 2-3% dip if there isn't agreement.

Of course I'm referring to progress (if not a final deal, as is unlikely occurring so quickly, unless there's been sufficient behind-the-scenes negotiating well beyond the preliminary talks we had heard as back-chatter for two weeks).. progress with China. So it could go notably in either direction to start.

We will leave it at that. And Happy Mother's Day to all the Mothers out there.

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