Groundhog Day  is Monday, so we'll see if the 'shadow' of this obscene cold winter blast (in most of America and the markets) is essentially disarmed soon with a notable washout and turn higher (or just up-dip-up if positive news may occur on the weekend with Iran; although the positioning of naval & air forces suggests 'action coming' rather than some 'deal'.. given the nature of special jets (signals intelligence aircraft) which flew the Atlantic via Spain; hence they normally are not deployed unless something likely happening needing them.

So, although that's a hint that conflict is coming (so are the Saudi & Israeli ... strategists... odd bedfellows visiting the Pentagon this week, some would say). Thus, aside follow-on compelled liquidations; a lot depends on the news this weekend from Washington and the Middle East; not just whether Tehran talks of negotiations, but commits to 'freedom' and not murdering their innocents.

Some of that relates to whether or not China really sold more U.S. assets; the actions (or not) by the Bank of Japan; both of which have recently paled by comparison with 'war drums beating', as that obviously occupies center-stage.

The tone of the market is understandably anxious. The tone also turned down on AI stocks that were raising incredible amounts of capital with no growth the major companies can show. Some of that sentiment has ratcheted down the food chain to the smaller companies; but they are at the stage of growth that does justify capital raises and investing in preparing for their future.

Hence I added to some positions and may do more next week 'if or in-event' of actual fighting in the Persian Gulf region. IF Iran dares (as propaganda has suggested) attack the USS Lincoln (we wrote two weeks ago it was headed there so didn't expect the crisis to reach a crescendo until then, provided Iran did not attempt a preemptive strike; they did not, except against their citizens desperately seeking freeing from the yoke of oppression from radical mullahs ... and frankly I hope people in the U.K. and France notice, that there are few protests against the Tehran regime in European or American cities; so it does tend to make responsible people take note of Islam killing their own citizens, prior to instigating a full revolution against the regime; which is truly justified.)

So do I think the market is rough? Of course. Do I think this gets sorted-out at the risk of a week-long (or more) destruction of 'most' military power of Iran? It could go that way; but hard to say. Iran may think they can attack our Carrier with 'swarms' of drones and speedboats; and perhaps they will. I don't know if we can really defend against drone swarms 'yet' (done so when Israel and the U.S. responded to Iran's attack; but it wasn't 100% and was very expensive to do without counter-drones, laser and so on; all of which exists but not in huge quantity 'yet'... but I do believe Iran's actual Navy can be sunk in a few hours.

If anything I'd be concerned about radical Islamist's or pro-regime 'terrorism in various places around the world'... including Iranian regime IRGC agents that it is suggested infiltrated across the border into the United States before now.

Market X-ray: little point in dissecting charts and technical levels when clearly it's a broad decline, with limited 'squaring' ahead of a 'military weekend' (Iran).

So there is knowledge of 'possibly' a couple days of Federal Shutdown (thus little relevance if everything is sorted early in the new week); there's of course the Appointment of the next Fed Chairman (and nothing more need be said aside he's taken both sides of the dovish or hawkish monetary policy sides); and there is the looming threat of an operation against Iran, which potentially could lash out (regardless of our likely successful efforts to wipe-out the awful Islamic regime) and even hit Saudi Oil facilities; and you now what that means for Oil prices briefly (if it happens).

So obviously there are many 'what if's' and in some cases I added bets in just a handful of new-era tickers, particularly 'after' they broke technical supports; in hopes that tripped-up some stops and constitutes a washout. However, that will not answer a question about Monday's start or margin-call pressures of a residual nature related to this past week's slide, even if turning up thereafter.

China gets most Oil from Iran so they do have an indirect degree of leverage against the United States you don't hear of generally... because they were accumulating Treasuries during far calmer times and distributing 'some' more recently. (Once again watch Oil. Far more of a market or inflation influence than any Bitcoin/crypto, which I don't trust.)

Whether that's a 'warning' by the Beijing CCP regime of how they can impact our markets is hard to discern. If you see President Trump's planned April trip to Beijing postponed or cancelled, you'll have a hint. I'm not expecting bearish worst-case outcomes of all this (centering around Iran); but it's sort of like why a guy wants a Prenuptial Agreement. Hope for the best; but prepare for the alternative scenarios, just in-case. Know what's on the 'other side of the deal'.

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