Market Briefing For Monday, April 30

Stagnant behavior in the wake of an 'earnings trifecta' the night before, tells volumes about the nature of this market environment. Not just stocks where you see moderate selling into favorable responses to earnings; but in the credit markets, where the concern about funding next week's heavy Auction Calendar is a likely contributor to current big-cap hesitation.
 

For sure the big-caps generally have priced-in more than the economy, or even common sense, would suggest, with respect to valuations, and there are a couple exceptions (like Amazon, helped by an automatic enhanced profitability of 2 Billion Dollars just by upping the charge for Prime); and of course Microsoft (where the Azure Cloud service is doing great).

Meanwhile, in an opposite sense traders are nervous (maybe excessively as regards a fundamental perception of the cellphone future) as relates to Apple. As I've recently explored the 'real' problem for the iPhone isn't the lack of enthusiasm for new design; but an awareness among those who know, that new versions of Intel's and Qualcomm's cellular modem chip, which Apple may continue to use on a mixed-basis (competitive issues), will support the new Advanced-LTE (sort of an interim before full 5G that mostly exists in 'test' markets; but will be welcomed as it's rolled-out very broadly; and already active in over 100 cities for both AT&T and Verizon.

Now there's some interesting developments hinted at this week by AT&T, which is leapfrogging competitors in terms of laying-fiber, and preparing a series of new initiatives. Because AT&T (while not admitting it), realizes it made a big mistake retaining DSL (the worst antiquated system nobody it seems has used in a decade) and then cobbling a limited fiber system so filled with bugs that it had to frequently update (U-Verse). Now a seriously advanced fiber player, AT&T Gigabit Wireless is hinting (CFO comments in their Conference Call) they are spending a fortune laying fiber, and that with what 'will' be the largest such network, see little sense in focusing so much on 'fixed 5G' wireless (neighborhoods) as we recently speculated.

So this is interesting, both AT&T and Verizon WILL expand 'fixed wireless 5G'; but now I see why AT&T is limiting this, for now, to rural areas. In big city cores and newer suburbs (where fiber is laid to start, and houses will be pre-wired with CAT-6 or the newest CAT-7 Ethernet), AT&T departs in a sense from Verizon, by focusing on fiber to the customers, since much fiber will already be present (hence why spend money on what essentially becomes service duplicity). And it does open-up future prospects of very concentrated 5G directly feeding (back-haul) into their fiber network from office buildings, condominium complex, or even core business districts.

What does this mean? It means that the historically-stogy AT&T finally is likely to be the internet leader (already kills competition among younger customers and gamers anywhere their fiber is available, whereas Google reduced their expansion and others have more limited ambitions). They made a very important decision by having NO data-caps if one also buys their forthcoming bundled streaming video (OTT television) service. This is going to make seemingly-expensive fiber service a combined bargain for consumers always trying to get more for less.

What I do know is that ongoing downward-pricing of television services like DirecTV, or DirecTV Now, or the upcoming AT&T Watch (DVR in the Cloud too), may clean the clocks of competitors like Comcast and quickly upgrading cable-internet providers like Spectrum (Charter, etc.). These are not 'bad' services, but when AT&T comes in to 'up' initial promotionalplans to 24 months from 12 months (I have been told) and at price points below combined internet and video services from cable, this is how AT&T wins in the long-run (or how they plan too). Their master plan has costs.  

Of course in the short-run, that's my take on 'why' AT&T missed numbers; but why I think this is much broader than the Time Warner merger (might well finalize). And why the billions spent (rightly or wrongly) on essentially laying-fiber in a world perceived to be going wireless (to an extent) might be an incredibly large 'bet' on overtaking competition and essentially just might set-them-up to become the 'new' Comcast of this looming era. (So that's were Time-Warner fits; to avoid AT&T being viewed as 'data utility', which in a sense they won't be with the OTT video integration offered. If they can shift perceptions; the shares may eventually merit a higher PE.)

 

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The Good Doctor 6 years ago Member's comment

Good update.