It feels like yesterday but it was over four years ago that I wrote, “It’s Time To Get Greedy In The Gold Market.” Gold was under $1,100 an ounce at the time and, for a number of reasons, it felt like there was the proverbial “blood in the streets” that marks a great time to buy.

As I wrote at the time, “It’s very easy to say, ‘be greedy when others are fearful,’ but it’s another thing entirely to actually do it.” And it was not easy to be a buyer of gold while it was so deeply out of favor but it has paid off since. The gold price recently hit $1,550 and the gold miners ETF (GDX) has doubled.

Looking at the energy sector today, I’m reminded in so many ways of this opportunity in gold. This looks to be the third losing year in a row for energy stocks, a pretty rare feat for any sector or asset class. And it comes after the back-to-back losing years of 2014 and 2015 (only 2016 kept it from being a six-year streak!). Gold had nearly gone four straight years of losses when it bottomed in 2015.

And, according to my friend, Meb Faber, it’s just this sort of persistently painful performance that typically sets up a terrific rebound.

Looking at the energy sector today I'm reminded of this @MebFaber post from a while back: https://t.co/5kl5KEMnAN pic.twitter.com/gxDz9NRUjg

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) December 10, 2019

The relative performance of energy has been so painful that it now makes up the smallest share of the S&P 500 in over two decades.

Ten years ago, energy accounted for about 15 percent of the S&P 500 index. Today, it makes up just 5 percent, having been mostly displaced by technology giants such as Facebook Inc. and Apple Inc. https://t.co/v4Ch6osY9K pic.twitter.com/zJFRNzK0wB

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) March 11, 2019

Investors have clearly become very fearful of this sector, consistently pulling tons of money out of the sector.