Is Apple Out Of Ideas?

Apple has been a boon for value traders since the early 2000s. Over the last ten years alone, shares of the company have increased by a staggering 905%. But you wouldn’t think that if you bought the stock in early 2015 and held it through the year. Shares have been down 1.79% on the year and 13.57% in the last six months.

So what’s going on? How does a company that set a record this year with its biggest annual profit in company history, flounder like it has? Honestly, it’s because it’s been a boring year for the usually exciting company.

One potential reason could be that its well of innovation has run dry. Think about it. The iPhone remains Apple’s biggest driver for both the top and bottom lines, making up a whopping 62.54% of the company’s revenue in the fourth quarter of 2015.

What happens when excitement over the latest iPhone model finally subdues? It’s highly unlikely that it will go on forever. We’re already seeing waning interest in the iPad, which saw a 20% decline in year over year revenue growth in the fourth quarter, and the Mac, which saw a meager 4% increase in revenue generated.

What about the Apple Watch and Apple Music?

Yes, Apple hasn’t been completely boring this year. We saw two big launches for the Apple Watch and Apple Music. But neither of these are likely to carry the torch, so to speak, if the iPhone sees any sort of pullback in the coming years.

Although, I must say it is good to see the company looking to diversify its revenue more. That will certainly help maintain things. But if Apple continues to turn its focus to updating its current product lines instead of creating new ones that can pull the same weight as the iPhone, the iPad or the Mac, it’s unlikely that Wall Street investors will continue to look at the company the same way.

The iHome could save the day

John Feland, CEO and founder of Argus Insights, a market analysis firm, predicts Apple may turn its focus to the home to stay innovative.

“Apple’s classic innovation mode for the past decade has been to enter markets [where] others have already made a lot of mistakes, learn from those mistakes and release a new experience that disrupts everyone’s thinking and finally delivers on the promise of that market,” he said.

“This method failed for the Apple Watch, in that nothing about the Apple Watch really delivered an experience above and beyond what Android Wear was already enabling consumers.

“If Apple does anything radical next year, it will be to deliver the Smart Home experience everyone else has been promising but failed to deliver.”

Conclusion

Whether or not Apple turns its focus to innovation in the home remains to be seen, but this much is clear: If that company doesn’t find a way to build a proper moat around the iPhone, it’s going to lose a lot of value over the years. The iPad and the Mac are no longer able to do that, and the Apple TV, Apple Watch and Apple Music certainly aren’t going to. Until something happens, it’s likely that investors will continue to be cautious about buying Apple shares. 

Disclosure: None.

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Comments

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Alexis Renault 8 years ago Member's comment

I know I'll get flamed for saying this, but I say Apple never had any ideas in the first place. They didn't invest the computer, or the MP3 player or the tablet, or the smart phone. They are very good at STEALING other companies' ideas and then improving upon them.

David Reynolds 8 years ago Member's comment

I agree 100%. I far prefer Android anyway.

Bruce Powers 8 years ago Member's comment

They should milk their current product lines as long as they can. Plenty of time to find the next big thing.