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Leading lunar exploration and space infrastructure stock Intuitive Machines (LUNR) shot for the moon on Friday with its stock surging 37.7% to close at $14.94 per share. The rally was sparked by KeyBanc initiating coverage with an "Overweight" recommendation and a $20 price target, implying roughly 34% upside from Friday's close (and about 84% from earlier levels before the run-up).

This bullish call aligns with broader Wall Street sentiment, where consensus ratings lean toward a buy and the average analyst one-year price target hovers near $16 per share, suggesting solid potential for further gains. With renewed focus on lunar missions, is now the moment for investors to jump in?

A New Moonshot

KeyBanc's bullish stance stems from Intuitive Machines' strong positioning in scalable lunar services. Analyst Michael Leshock highlighted the company's near-term opportunities, including a pro-forma backlog approaching $1 billion following its acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems. This deal expands LUNR beyond one-off missions into broader space infrastructure, enhancing capabilities in production and operations.

The analyst also points to Intuitive Machines' leadership in the Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) program under NASA's Artemis campaign, where the company is one of three finalists developing vehicles for astronaut mobility on the Moon. The firm sees high confidence in upcoming milestones, like the IM-3 mission, and views the stock's valuation as undervalued relative to long-term growth prospects in lunar infrastructure.

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Adding a new tailwind, President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday titled "Ensuring American Space Superiority" reaffirming the U.S.'s commitment to landing astronauts on the Moon by 2028 through the Artemis program. It aims to establish initial elements of a permanent lunar outpost by 2030, including nuclear power sources on the surface.

This policy accelerates lunar development, countering competition from China and prioritizing commercial partnerships. Intuitive Machines stands to benefit significantly as a proven NASA contractor with expertise in lunar landers and services. Its Moon RACER LTV, designed for Artemis astronauts to explore farther and conduct more science, positions LUNR as a key enabler of this outpost vision. Success in LTV contracts could unlock billions of dollars in value, supporting sustained revenue from remote operations between missions.

Intuitive Machine's proven track record – it already delivered the first commercial lunar landing in 2024 (albeit with a tipover mishap) – further bolsters investor confidence in its ability to execute on these ambitious programs.

Space is a Risky Place

Execution by Intuitive Machines remains key. Lunar missions are technically challenging, and delays or setbacks could pressure the stock. The space stock's second moon landing (IM-2) with the Athena lander in March also resulted in the lander tipping onto its side in a crater near the Moon's South Pole, preventing it from recharging or fully deploying its payloads, making it a failure. LUNR stock plummeted afterward.

Volatility is high in this speculative sector, with government timelines and funding uncertainties. Still, Intuitive Machines remains the only private sector company to have reached the Moon.

Bottom Line

Intuitive Machines offers compelling exposure to the expanding lunar economy, backed by strong NASA ties, a growing backlog, and policy momentum thrusting the industry forward. KeyBanc's coverage initiation and President Trump's executive order highlight the upside potential from near-term contracts and long-term infrastructure roles, making LUNR stock a buy.

Overall, LUNR appears well-positioned for growth in a supportive environment, making it an attractive opportunity for risk-tolerant investors eyeing the space sector's next phase.

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