2024 is not picking up where 2023 left off as futures are sharply lower with the Nasdaq indicated to open the year down over 1% and the S&P 500 down 0.8%. Things weren’t as bad overnight, but the sellers appeared to step in just after Europe opened for trading. While an earthquake in Japan over the weekend and geo-political concerns in the Middle East haven’t helped concerning this morning’s market picture, they wouldn’t account for such a large decline at the open. The more likely culprit is simply a round of profit-taking after a monster rally to close out 2023.

The economic calendar in the US is light today with the S&P Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 and Construction Spending at 10 AM. PMI readings for the rest of the world that have already been released were generally slightly better than expected even as the manufacturing sectors for Europe’s largest economies remain in contractionary territory.

One area of the market not feeling the pressure this morning is Bitcoin. After a rally of over 150% in 2023, the world’s largest cryptocurrency isn’t skipping a beat in 2024 as it’s already up over 7% YTD and above $45K. Bitcoin traded in a bit of a sideways range from early December through the end of the year, but a rally in the first two days of the new year has helped it to clear resistance and reach new 52-week highs.

From a longer-term perspective, bitcoin is still well off its record highs from late 2021, but it has also essentially erased all its losses from 2022. There’s still plenty of overhead resistance above, but with $45K cleared, $50K, a level it has only crossed above or below 16 times, will be the next area to watch.

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