US stock markets are slightly up by the potential more dovish projections of the interest rate curve which forecasts a rate cut around June, with a probability of about 47% – the FOMC meeting will kick off Tuesday, which is awaited and monitored by investors.

Market participants are still concerned about the health of the banking sector as governments try to boost confidence in the system. The Swiss government forced UBS to take over Credit Suisse with about CHF 16 billion which might be a positive factor for the stock markets.

However, the First Republic Bank still is a worry point as the recent $30 billion cash infusion might not be enough to solve its problems – pressures the markets with potential upcoming economic data and the mentioned highly awaited FOMC meeting.

The dollar fell by about 0.4%, boosting the prices of metals such as Gold and Copper to rally with equities while the volatility turned into negative which might support the market additionally. Bitcoin was another surprise market to the upside due to the lower dollar, dovish interest rate projection, and investors which were lurking for safer assets to move such as Gold or the Japanese Yen.

The median-term perspective is still pointing to the upside with a lower dollar for the month while the positive volatility might be a pressure factor or warning to be cautious with core long positions due to the banking situation.

The technical perspective of the E-mini S&P 500 found some core buying around the lower extreme of the Quarter’s and Years developing value area, targeting the upper extreme as a potential rotational scenario.

Today’s double distribution profile’s POC was the target for the session as the market worked its way back into the prior price range after the lows had been taken out. The market hit a potential key retracement area which might turn the market to reverse downward, depending on the New York trading session auction process with mixed signs, pointing to a balanced behavior.

In case of a halt of interest rate hikes from the US central bank Fed, the dollar might drop which could in turn favor the prices of commodities and equities and may add to inflationary points afterward. However, Crude oil is seemingly bearish is down with about 13% for the month. The current banking situation might also lead the central bank to provide liquidity which would be inflationary while the event could have played into the plan to weaken the economy – pressures the dollar, which should be strong to fight inflation off the cards. Tricky.

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