I’m a believer in trusting the market. As members of Nail Tech Earnings know, bad news good action is a good formula for the market.

Last week’s jobs report - a big miss on the number of new jobs created - could be an example of that bad news/good action formula. The market seems to think that the weak jobs report means the Fed won’t hike rates anytime soon, even with the onset of inflation.

I’m not so sure, though. Inflation is here, and this week’s CPI report may underline that reality. The jobs report showed wage inflation, which may actually put us in the opposite of a Goldilocks situation - low growth and high inflation. That could force the Fed’s hand to act, no matter how consistent they are about calling the inflation transitory. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s since walked-back remarks only add to the concerns.

That’s not a great setup for tech stocks, no matter how good the long-term trends look. It’s also not a great setup for Bitcoin (BTC-USD). If the Fed does act, cryptocurrency is less attractive. There are a couple of other reasons I’ve gone neutral on Bitcoin, including China’s efforts to shut down mining efforts, which could be bad news in a number of directions.

I’m also watching China for geopolitical risk, with both China and Taiwan and Russia and Ukraine flaring up as potential problems for the world and the market. We’ve gotten so used to thinking that the Fed is the only game in town, but there are events out of their purview, and investors would do well to pay attention.

The video discusses all of these points in more detail.

Video Length: 00:22:36