I'm stating the obvious here, but it's a tough time to be a market contrarian. With a Federal Reserve that's avowedly willing to do whatever it takes to "keep the expansion going," I won't dare to short anything in the S&P 500, even including a high flyer like Apple (AAPL).

But then, I don't plan on buying Apple shares either, at least not right now. I'm hesitant to express this watch-and-wait policy on message boards because the popular sentiment isn't just bullish; it's decidedly anti-bearish to the point of hostility. Has Apple become a cult stock like Tesla (TSLA) or Beyond Meat (BYND)?

One would think so, at least judging by investors' refusal to sell the shares in any meaningful or sustained manner. The few dips that do take place in Apple stock are quickly bid back up, indicating profit-taking rather than pessimism. Folks seem to be forgetting that this was a $150 stock not very long ago - and if we're willing to pull back the chart a bit, then we should view AAPL as a $90 stock that has had a tremendous run-up:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Courtesy: BarChart.com

I suppose the argument could be made that there's a difference between price and value, and that Apple stock is still a good value with a trailing 12-month P/E ratio of around 20. Be that as it may, I just can't look at that chart and bring myself to buy shares. Take this thing below $200 and I'll revisit it; push it below $180 and you'll definitely have my attention.

But then, I might be a stubborn fool for staying out of the Apple trade - it won't be the first time I've been called that. If AAPL tacks on another 10 or 20 percent before the year's over, I won't feel bad about it, though. I'll just say, "Bon voyage," and congratulate those who had the stomach to ride on that fast, furious ship.