E I'll Probably Regret It, But I'm Not Buying Apple At These Prices

I'm stating the obvious here, but it's a tough time to be a market contrarian. With a Federal Reserve that's avowedly willing to do whatever it takes to "keep the expansion going," I won't dare to short anything in the S&P 500, even including a high flyer like Apple (AAPL).

But then, I don't plan on buying Apple shares either, at least not right now. I'm hesitant to express this watch-and-wait policy on message boards because the popular sentiment isn't just bullish; it's decidedly anti-bearish to the point of hostility. Has Apple become a cult stock like Tesla (TSLA) or Beyond Meat (BYND)?

One would think so, at least judging by investors' refusal to sell the shares in any meaningful or sustained manner. The few dips that do take place in Apple stock are quickly bid back up, indicating profit-taking rather than pessimism. Folks seem to be forgetting that this was a $150 stock not very long ago - and if we're willing to pull back the chart a bit, then we should view AAPL as a $90 stock that has had a tremendous run-up:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Courtesy: BarChart.com

I suppose the argument could be made that there's a difference between price and value, and that Apple stock is still a good value with a trailing 12-month P/E ratio of around 20. Be that as it may, I just can't look at that chart and bring myself to buy shares. Take this thing below $200 and I'll revisit it; push it below $180 and you'll definitely have my attention.

But then, I might be a stubborn fool for staying out of the Apple trade - it won't be the first time I've been called that. If AAPL tacks on another 10 or 20 percent before the year's over, I won't feel bad about it, though. I'll just say, "Bon voyage," and congratulate those who had the stomach to ride on that fast, furious ship.

Disclosure: David Moadel is not a licensed or registered investment advisor, and has no position in any securities listed herein.

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Wannabe Warren 2 years ago Member's comment

Still waiting for your next article!

David Moadel 2 years ago Author's comment

I'm glad that someone actually wants me to write another one! Thank you, there may be more coming soon...

Wannabe Warren 2 years ago Member's comment

I enjoyed your articles and your thought process very much - it's quite good.

David Moadel 2 years ago Author's comment

Thank you sir - much appreciated

Nicholas Charles Cox 2 years ago Contributor's comment

Apple is one of those shares you should to try to time.Just buy and hold for the long term, maybe a bit of profit taking here and there and buying on dips here and there.I've owned it since Steve Jobs returned in 1997 myself.

Kurt Benson 2 years ago Member's comment

Wow, I envy your foresight about #Apple. I wish I had bought $AAPL back then! Have any other ideas forming in your crystal ball?

David Moadel 2 years ago Author's comment

Thank you for the comment Nicholas