Here's What Wall St. Experts Are Saying About These EV Names Ahead Of Results
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Several electric vehicle makers are expected to report quarterly results in the upcoming weeks. Lucid (LCID) is scheduled to report earnings on Monday, May 8, while Rivian (RIVN), Nikola (NKLA), and Fisker (FSR) are expected to announce quarterly results the day after. Li Auto (LI) will hold its earnings call on May 10, with Nio (NIO), Xpeng (XPEV), and Lordstown Motor (RIDE) also expected to announce results soon. What to watch for:
TARGET CUT: In a research note ahead of earnings, Wells Fargo lowered its price target on Rivian to $14 from $18, while keeping an Equal Weight on the shares. The firm notes that Q1 deliveries of 7,946 outperformed its 7,010 estimate and, therefore, is lowering its EPS estimate given current negative margins. Wells also highlights that the company's electric vans, which are solely for Amazon (AMZN), saw very little production in an effort to integrate its in-house Enduro dual motor & LFP battery production. Management indicated the Enduro launch was successful and will begin integration on R1 lines. The firm views successful integration of Enduro as required for the company to achieve 2023 guidance of 50,000 vehicles produced and volume ramp sufficient to flex fixed costs, as it cuts Rivian’s reliance on semi-chips in half, according to management.
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MOVING TO THE SIDELINES: Last month, RBC Capital downgraded Rivian Automotive to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $14, down from $28. While the firm argues that Rivian is "well positioned to capture market share as the industry shift towards electrification," in the near-term it sees limited catalysts to accelerate profitability and believes the company's margins will "remain constrained." Nonetheless, the firm also thinks the R2 reveal and production ramp can help sentiment and over the longer-term it believes Rivian's "clean-sheet approach" and vertical integration will allow for higher margins at scale.
Piper Sandler also downgraded Rivian Automotive to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $15, down from $63. The firm still likes Rivian's strategy, but says the strategy is costly. In order for Rivian to justify its cost structure, the company must spread its investment over millions of units like Tesla (TSLA) does, and in order to finance such aggressive expansion, the company will need capital, Piper tells investors in a research note. Specifically, the firm thinks $4B-plus will be needed to fund the company's growth beyond 2025. Rivian shouldn't abandon its strategy, but until funding is addressed, the stock will stay trading at book value, contends Piper. The firm believes "considerable intrinsic value probably cannot be unlocked within the next 12 months."
UPSIDE CATALYST WATCH: Back in March, Citi opened a "90-day upside Catalyst Watch" on shares of Fisker. Despite issuing "very encouraging" 2023 guidance versus electric vehicle peers, Fisker shares have languished likely on macro concerns, the firm told investors in a research note. If Fisker delivers on all or most of its near-term milestones, the stock's narrative "can rapidly change from one of heavy skepticism today to one that embraces the Ocean's compelling EV specs/price-points, the asset-light model and the company's growth objectives," Citi contends. With a market capitalization that is a "fraction of peers," the upside case appears sizable if Fisker can deliver in the coming months, writes the firm. It keeps a Buy rating on the shares with a $21 price target.
POSSIBILITY OF BANKRUPTCY: On Monday, R.F. Lafferty lowered the firm's price target on Lordstown Motors to 3c from 23c, while keeping a Sell rating on the shares. This comes after the company filed its first quarter Form 10-Q, which includes a warning on the possibility of bankruptcy risk if the company is unable to resolve its dispute with Foxconn.
Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs moved its rating on Lordstown Motors to Suspended after the company announced that on April 21 it had received a letter from Foxconn asserting that Lordstown Motors was in breach of the investment agreement between the two firms due to its previously disclosed receipt of a notice from the Nasdaq indicating that it was no longer in compliance with the $1.00 minimum bid price requirement for continued listing on the exchange. Lordstown Motors has notified Foxconn that it believes the breach allegations in the Foxconn notice are without merit, and believes that the investment agreement remains in effect. Goldman Sachs notes that there is now "insufficient information on which to base an investment view."
FURTHER DILUTION EXPECTED: Late March, BTIG downgraded Nikola to Neutral from Buy without a price target after the company diluted shareholders by about 11% for $100M of equity to address some near-term liquidity needs. Management, which earlier this year slowed production of the Tre BEV, "continues to make the tough decisions," as producing fewer trucks actually will save the company money until they can reduce production costs, the firm tells investors. However, despite the $100M cash injection, "management still has a lot of work to do" to balance cash burn against its existing cash, with BTIG saying its downgrade reflects expectations for further dilution.
STRONG SALES: Two weeks ago, Jefferies upgraded XPeng to Hold from Underperform with a price target of $9.30, up from $4.20. The firm cited strong sales of P7i and the company's advanced driver assistance systems leadership for the upgrade. With the emergence of ChatGPT, customer demand for vehicle intelligence has increased, as evidenced by XPeng's recent recovery, Jefferies says.
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