Short Report: Bears Increase Exposure To Lemonade After Earnings-Driven Spike
Short interest in Lemonade on the rise despite earnings-induced price spike; QuantumScape shorts pared as stock retreat slows.
Welcome to this week’s installment of “The Short Interest Report" - The Fly's weekly recap of short interest trends among some of the most widely followed high-short-float stocks. Using the data from our partner Ortex.com, which utilizes the latest information from stock lenders to estimate short interest changes for thousands of publicly traded companies, this report will screen for some of biggest changes in short interest as a percentage of free float and days-to-cover ratios while also considering the short interest data on some of the more volatile and heavier-traded names of the week. Based on the availability of data from Ortex, the report tracks the trading period that covers prior Friday through Thursday of this week, excluding holidays. As a basis of comparison for stocks discussed below, the S&P 500 index was down 1.7%, the Russell 2000 index was down 1.8%, the Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) was down 1.1%, and the Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) was down 2.6% in the five-day trading session range.
SHORT INTEREST GAINERS
- Estimated short interest on value insurance provider Lemonade (LMND) had fallen to a 20-month low of 20.2% in the first week of April but nudged higher over the past several weeks and accelerated further this week after the company’s Q1 results, rising from 21.3% to 23.5% - a one-month high. Shares spiked by nearly 30% on Thursday alone as Lemonade’s Q1 earnings loss came in narrower than expected and with its management raising its FY23 revenue guidance to $392M-$396M from $375M-$379M, calling out an increase of gross earned premiums while also touting AI as a cornerstone of the company’s technological design. A research note from BofA questioned the sustainability of the rally with a price target cut to $12 from $14 and an Underperform rating, yet the stock has held its gains, jumping 34% in the five-day period covered.
- Ortex-reported short interest on Nordstrom (JWN) had slipped to a nine-month low of 17.8% in late March before a month-long uptrend has seen that position expand to 21.3% of free float, with the past week accounting for about a point and a half of that rise. Days to cover on the name has also risen from 5.3 to 6.4 - a two-month high. Nordstrom has fared much better than its Department Store peers this year with Macy’s (M) and Kohls (KSS) down double digits amid a broader pullback in discretionary spending, though the stock is still down over 5% in 2023. In the five-day period covered through Thursday, Nordstrom was off by 8.2% before erasing that decline in one fell swoop on Friday.
- Estimated short interest in Upstart (UPST) marked a five-month low of 33.6% two weeks ago but has since tracked higher while the stock headed lower. Shorts as a percentage of free float were up to 37.2% from 35.4% this week and days-to-cover were up 90bps to a two-month high of 5.7. In the five-day period through Thursday, Upstart shares were also down 13.9%. The company reports its Q1 earnings on May 9th.
SHORT INTEREST DECLINERS
- Estimated short interest in EV battery technology innovator QuantumScape (QS) has fallen from its eight-week high of 20.7% registered last week to 18.8% and now sits one point away from its 2023 low. The stock has suffered a 16% decline since reporting a wider than expected earnings loss early last week and was also down 16% in the five-day period covered through Thursday, though short-sellers are mindful that the company’s fortunes may be more macro-driven with potential of a turnaround as the battery electric vehicle revolution shifts to a higher gear.
- Ortex-reported short interest on Fisker (FSR) peaked at a record high of 41% last week, but with the stock staging a rebound, bears have pulled back on exposure. Estimated shorts retreated to 37.8% and days-to-cover on the stock slipped to a nine-month low of 12.9. In the five-day period covered, Fisker shares are down 11%, though the stock is up 40% from its April 21st low. Fisker also reports its results prior to market open this Tuesday.
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