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A lower-than-expected PPI reading Tuesday morning slightly increased the probability of a 50-point rate cut by the Fed on September 18 resulting a big stock market rally (S&P +1.68%, Nasdaq +2.43%). On the other hand, Home Depot (HD) significantly decreased its full-year comp guidance from -1% to -3% to -4% amid weakening sales.

A couple of thoughts. First, this big rally on the PPI ahead of the more important CPI on Wednesday morning puts a lot of pressure on that number. Bulls are going to need confirmation that inflation – as the Fed measures it – is really weakening to sustain the budding rally. Second, HD’s report shouldn’t have been overlooked the way it was today IMO as it confirms what we’ve been hearing from other companies like AirBnB (ABNB) and McDonald’s (MCD) that the economy is rolling over.

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