ETSY Stock Is Down Big: Here’s Why The Smart Money Is Still Bullish

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After inking a groundbreaking deal with OpenAI (the brains behind the popular chatbot ChatGPT), e-commerce specialist Etsy (ETSY) is struggling badly. On Tuesday, the namesake equity is down more than 9%. Still, activity within the options market suggests that the smart money remains a big player in the business.

Yesterday, CNBC reported that OpenAI’s new feature called Instant Checkout will allow users to buy products through ChatGPT. In the first go-around, the service will allow users to place single-item purchases from U.S. Etsy sellers. Further, this capability is available to both premium and free domestic users. Subsequently, ETSY stock jumped nearly 16%.

Fast forward 24 hours later and the bears have pulled back a significant amount of the enthusiasm. Despite the choppy performance, ETSY stock remains one of the top performers. Since the beginning of the year, the security has swung up about 28%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite index has gained just under 17% during the same frame.

Still, ETSY stock carries a 60-month beta of 1.77. It therefore raises the obvious question: where does the security head next?

To get a better understanding, investors may look to the options market, which often provides interesting signals. According to Fintel, net long premiums bought — which back out bearish (sold) calls and puts and bakes in bullish calls and (sold) puts — stood at $1.51 million at the beginning of the month. On a cumulative basis, this figure stood at nearly $1.79 million on Sept. 29.

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Granted, a roughly 19% lift in net long premiums bought isn’t exactly earthshattering. However, what is noteworthy is that even as ETSY stock gained nearly 44% during the aforementioned period, the smart money didn’t really step on the brakes; that is, go bearish. Instead, it merely coasted while carrying significant velocity heading into the next corner.

Translation? For the time being, the smart money appears to be big players on ETSY stock. As such, there’s a very real possibility that the current red ink may be considered a discount.


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