Dis-Inversion And Re-Inversion Over The Last 3 Months

Black and Gray Laptop Computer

Image Source: Pexels

Not sure what it means, but I suspect heightened growth anxieties for the 4-month to 3 year horizon.

Figure 1: Yield curve on 11/5/2024 (blue), on 12/31/2024 (orange), 2/21/2025 (green), %. Source: Treasury.

Here’re two conventional term spreads (neither of which have inverted), and the VIX.

Figure 2: 10yr-3mo term spread (blue, left scale), 10yr-2yr term spread (red, left scale), both %; VIX (green, right scale). Source: Treasury, CBOE via FRED.


More By This Author:

Consumer Expectations Crash, 1 Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Soar As 5 Year Ahead Hits Record
Bringing Prices Down: A Progress Report
No Recession Until 2025Q4 (Assuming Reciprocal Tariffs w/Retaliation)
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.
Or Sign in with