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The world is still processing the dramatic U.S. military raid on Jan. 3 that led to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on long-standing narcoterrorism charges, including cocaine importation conspiracy and possession of machine guns. Executed during Operation Absolute Resolve, U.S. special forces captured Maduro and his wife in Caracas, marking a rare apprehension of a sitting head of state akin to Manuel Noriega's in 1989.

While the charges stem from alleged decades-long ties to drug cartels, the ulterior motive appears tied to Venezuela's vast oil reserves – the world's largest. President Trump has vowed the U.S. will spearhead the industry's revival, promising billions in investments from American companies to rebuild production and stabilize the region. A renewed Venezuelan oil market could spark a global boom, but Exxon Mobil (XOM) may have just dashed those hopes.

White House Pitch Meets Industry Caution

At a high-profile White House event last week, President Trump gathered top oil executives to promote massive investments in Venezuela's battered energy sector, estimating at least $100 billion needed to revive output from its current 1 million barrels per day.

Trump emphasized U.S. control over operations, assuring companies they would deal directly with American authorities, not Venezuelan ones, and signed an executive order protecting oil revenues from legal seizures to foster stability. Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil – one of the world's largest integrated oil and gas companies – participated, highlighting the potential influx of industry dollars.

However, Woods was strikingly blunt, declaring Venezuela "uninvestable" in its current state. This candid assessment poured ice-cold water on the enthusiasm, signaling major hurdles ahead despite the administration's optimism.

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The Risks That Will Keep Exxon on the Sidelines

Woods' pessimism stems from Exxon's turbulent history in Venezuela. The company has seen its assets seized twice by the government – first under Hugo Chávez in 2007, when nationalization efforts stripped foreign firms of control, and again amid escalating disputes.

Exxon pursued international arbitration, winning billions in compensation, but the experiences left deep scars. Without profound changes, including robust security guarantees, legal reforms, and a stable fiscal framework, Woods argued, Exxon won't risk its capital and operations a third time. He mentioned plans to send a technical team for assessment but stressed that significant overhauls are essential for any re-entry.

This caution reflects broader industry concerns about political instability, mismanagement, and lingering sanctions in Venezuela, even as the U.S. begins selective rollbacks of those sanctions in coordination with interim leaders like Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez.

Bottom Line

Despite Exxon's reticence, other oil companies are showing willingness to engage. Chevron (CVX) – the last major U.S. firm still operating in Venezuela – produces about a fifth of the country's output and plans to ramp up efforts. Spain's Repsol aims to triple its 45,000 barrels per day under favorable conditions, while U.S.-based independent driller Armstrong Oil & Gas, led by CEO Bill Armstrong, is excited, calling Venezuela "prime real estate" ripe for development.

Yet, with Exxon standing on the sidelines, marshalling the tens of billions required annually – analysts estimate $8 billion to $9 billion annually to triple production by 2040 – could prove challenging. The path to a new oil boom remains uncertain, hinging on reforms that may take years to materialize.

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