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Marching Like a Brass Band

They came for the dip again, and once more the market rewarded them. What started as a tentative Monday, with screens in the red and traders glancing nervously at the calendar, ended as another chapter in the bull market saga. By the close, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow had all notched fresh intraday highs, the latest stretch of tracks laid on what feels like an endless upward railway.

At the heart of it, the conductor is still the same: Nvidia (NVDA). The AI locomotive fired another piston yesterday, surging 4% on news it will pour $100 billion into OpenAI to fund the data-center backbone of tomorrow’s digital empire. That number is obscene by any historical yardstick, but in this market, it is taken as proof the AI trade is not just a passing fever—it’s a structural driver of EPS into 2026 and beyond. Traders didn’t even flinch; they leaned harder into the rally, as if the rails laid by silicon will carry the whole train across the valley.

Oracl (ORCL) e joined the show, notching another leg higher after its leadership shuffle and riding a 42% moonshot month. Apple’s gains, fueled by enthusiasm over fresh iPhone sales, kept the retail crowd engaged. Every passenger on the tech express seems to have a ticket punched for higher ground.

But even on this gleaming line, there are rickety bridges ahead. The U.S. government shutdown drama remains unresolved—another potential rockslide on the tracks. The Senate’s failure to bridge the gap between competing proposals leaves traders watching the Sept. 30 deadline with one eye, even as the other scans record-high tickers. Markets rarely derail on the first warning, but complacency can turn into chaos when the train rounds a blind corner.

And yet, policy remains the unseen hand steadying the throttle. The Fed’s first rate cut since December lit the lantern for risk assets, signaling two more likely before year-end. With no recession signals flashing, the market reads the central bank as engineer and brakeman all in one—managing speed without threatening to stop the ride. Inflation’s next print—the PCE index due this week—will serve as another track gauge, but expectations are tame enough for Powell and crew to keep the firebox stoked.

It’s worth remembering: historically, this is the weakest week of the year for the S&P, at least by Citadel’s data. Seasonals whisper caution even as the tape screams momentum. But unless “straight off the rails” makes an unscheduled appearance, the path into year-end is tilting higher. Traders are buying into the idea that not only is this rally real—it is self-reinforcing. Each dip is another chance to get back on the train before it disappears into the horizon.

September has been marching like a brass band — already up more than 3% month-to-date, and the beat looks set to carry on. The technicals don’t scream a runaway breakout, but they carry enough rhythm to suggest the upside groove isn’t done yet.

Crosscurrents remain: seasonal drag, pension month-end selling, corporates stuck in blackout, and systematic flows that could start limping against the tape — especially if either the Unemployment Boogeyman or the Inflation Dragon shows up at the door uninvited. Still, the market’s posture feels balanced enough that the default move is higher.

Low vol through summer has left investors well-hedged, with plenty of downside protection already paid for. In this setup, the real pain trade isn’t lower — it’s higher. Institutions aren’t overextended, retail remains sticky, and flows should reassert themselves into year-end once blackout season passes. Neutral signals may abound, but the undercurrent is still northbound.

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