Beware Of February 29th

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While we can't buy more time, tomorrow marks the rare occasion, occurring roughly every four years, when we all get an extra day. Leap years, as they're known, seem straightforward at first glance - every four years, right? However, there's a small twist. Typically, a year divisible by four is a leap year, but years ending in '00 are only leap years if they're divisible by 400. For example, 2000 qualified as a leap year, but 1700, 1800, and 1900 did not.

Now, let's look at historical data. Since the New York Stock Exchange adopted the five-day trading week in late 1952, the S&P 500's average performance on the last trading day of February has been flat, with a median change of 0.00%. However, when the last trading day falls on Leap Day (February 29th), performance has been weaker. The S&P 500's median performance dips slightly to a decline of 0.13%, compared to a small gain of 0.06% on the last trading day of every other February. Interestingly, the last trading day of February, regardless of being a leap year or not, has shown weakness in recent years, experiencing negative returns in the past nine years. Whether or not the pattern plays out this year remains to be seen, but even if it does, it would be a small price to pay for an extra day!


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Disclaimer: Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any ...

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