Bears Thwart Bulls To Own The Edge

The S&P 500 remains in the same trading range I have been discussing. On Monday I thought the bulls had the ball and would run to at least 6050 before the bears would start to fight. The bulls lost steam on the way and the bears pounded in a big way on Tuesday. We also saw more significant selling on Tuesday, especially in the tech sector.

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For now, we have to sit back and tolerate the frustration of not having an edge on which way it all breaks. I feel and see the frustration in some of our models who have been buying on one day and getting stopped out a day later.

Below used to be everyone’s favorite stock, Nvidia (NVDA). Tuesday was among the ugliest days on the chart. It rallied to the old highs in the morning only to see the bears break out the shock and awe to hammer the stock. Check out the volume on the bottom. That was real selling.

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Once again, the market is in somewhat limbo, but the edge now goes to the bears. A close below 5800 likely sets the stage for a quick 100-200 point plunge where a tradeable low should come in. And although I do not believe 2025 will be another bang up years for stocks, I also disagree with those who think the bull market peaked and stocks are headed down 20%+.

On Monday we bought PCY and TQQQ. We sold GDX, NUGT and some MQQQ, KIE and UWM. On Tuesday we bought more QLD. We sold TQQQ and PCY.


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Please see HC's full disclosure here.

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