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Last Thursday, for the quarter ending March 31st, Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) reported 12.5% revenue increase in Q1 2025 to $10.54 billion from the year-ago quarter. At nearly a $420 billion market cap, the entertainment giant is aiming for a $1 trillion milestone by 2030.

Netflix leadership views this goal feasible by enhancing three pillars: subscriber count, ad revenue, and expansion into densely populated markets such as India and Brazil. The implication is that NFLX investors should expect ~15% annual gains in the next five years, making the stock an attractive equity. Year-to-date, NFLX stock is up 10.3% to $996 per share. But how feasible is the company’s ambition?

Vanguarding Global Monoculture

It is no secret that the US hegemony, via its Big Tech cluster, is also at the forefront of creating a global monoculture. At a glance, it may seem as if diverse cultures are catered to, but in practice the consumer-driven imperatives in fashion, music, entertainment and media are creating a leveling effect.

And the greater the leveling effect, the lesser is the friction in deploying mediatic products. In turn, more region-centric companies receive a disadvantage, which only strengthens Netflix.

Netflix co-CEO and Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos noted in early 2021 that Netflix’s content creation policy relies on casting a wide net. The company even consulted USC Annenberg Inclusion Initiative to maximize inclusion in the entire pipeline production, from screenwriters and actors to producers.

Although some critics may call Netflix policy an ideological capture, the company is moving ahead of trends. Case in point, the proportion of Caucasians in the US is steadily decreasing, presently under 60%.

The same trend applies globally, with people of European descent representing under 8% of the world’s population. Having expanded in Latin America in 2011, Netflix demonstrated its wide net prowess by gaining 40.3 million subscribers by 2023, of which Brazil alone netted 14.4 million.

Altogether, this is why Netflix’s $1 trillion market cap goal is attainable. After all, by establishing a global presence so early in the streaming technology, Netflix is likely to become the Google of entertainment.

But what do numbers say?

Netflix Subscription Growth

In Q1 2025, Netflix achieved the highest operating margin of 31.7% vs 28.1% in the year-ago quarter, and significantly above 22.2% margin in the prior quarter. Likewise, the company’s net income increased from $2.3 billion in Q1 ‘24 to $2.89 billion.

For the next quarter, Netflix projects an even higher operating margin of 33.3% and a similar year-over-year revenue growth of 15.4%.

Although Netflix stopped reporting subscriber numbers, the company attributes higher-than-forecasted subscription growth to increased to exceeded revenue. Regarding the possibility of recession, Netflix views this macro factor as neutral in the worst-case scenario.

After all, in economic downturns consumers tend to seek cheap alternatives to outings, and “Netflix and chill” is already as established an alternative as it could be. More importantly, the company is looking at double the ad revenue from its cheapest ad-supported subscription tier.

This dynamic is timely, as YouTube bombarded the users with ads. By comparison, this makes the cheapest tier from Netflix feel premium. On top of that, Netflix expects greater revenue, at $43.5B – $44.5B during 2025, based on higher subscription pricing as less impatient users are driven from YouTube.

According to Barb statistics covering the UK, Netflix is ahead of YouTube in capturing streaming attention hours at 9% vs 7% respectively.

On the side of advertisers, they can expect greater service with recently launched Ads Suite in the US, built in-house by Netflix. Its rollout to UCAN, EMEA and LATAM regions should similarly entice international business to market themselves.

Ultimately, it is likely that Netflix will reach the coveted $1 trillion market cap, joining Alphabet (2020), Apple (2018), Microsoft (2019), Amazon (2018), and Meta Platforms (2021).

Netflix Price Targets

To maintain shareholder confidence and materialize the $1 trillion market cap milestone, Netflix spent $3.5B in stock buybacks this quarter. There is plenty left in the share repurchase program, at $13.6 billion.

According to WSJ’s aggregated forecasting data, the average NFLX price target is $1,112.11 vs the current price of $996 per share. The bottom target is $833 while the ceiling is $1,494 per share.

With such relatively safe ranges, and sound fundamentals, NFLX stock should be considered at every major market stock correction.

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