S&P 500 peeked below 5,735 a few times yesterday, but selling stampede didn‘t happen. Retreating rate cut odds (75bp more cuts in 2024 are down to 10% from 29% a week ago) are though what‘s been sending down long-dated Treasuries, and I first advised of their troubles ahead before Sep FOMC.

And how did the NVDA and sectoral signs discussed yesterday both free and premium turn out? I‘m covering that some more below of course (look for plenty of Telegram and Twitter coverage with Israeli response getting clearer contours – oil price consequences), but let‘s say that bias prediction made in our channel late yesterday, is panning out in the premarket action regardless of sellers succeeding to take ES even to 5,726.

ADP employment change Wednesday came in above expectations, and last month it was manufacturing with -24K that was the drag on hiring, cancelled out by the same volume of government hiring. Private payrolls are to come in fine, around 130K, participation rate or weekly hours won‘t be a hindrance, and hourly earnings wouldn‘t slow down below 0.3% mom. Summed up, a decent set of data coming in line or slightly above the headline NFPs expectations (all clients know and benefit already), which will have the further described effect on asset prices.

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