A Wild Day

We are back in reporting overload today after US jobless levels fell sharply last week, boosting markets, at least for today. The market is wild today. The Dow Jones opened up 200 points but that means this week was lower than last, the third week in a row with a loss in the major index. And then the tech rout resumed because interest rates rose. And the indexes all went into the red as 10-yr US treasury bond yields went back over 1.6%.

Now the Dow is back in the black for the day, up 250 points. BofA Merrill says to sit out the US corporate bond market because the Fed will have to deal with rising interest rates (which reduce bond prices.)

China set a 6% target for its economic growth in the current year and at 5% per year over the next 15, although it only grew 2.3% last year because of covid-19. However, most countries did not grow at all, so China aims to export more this year. Its good showing last year was thanks to the 15.43 trillion yuan growth in only 4 provinces, on its east coast, which accounted for 25% of growth.

Mexico will produce more green energy as the state electric company will bailout bust solar and wind farms. Opec restricted output to keep prices up, now over $65/bbl.

Business newspaper article

image source

*Mercado Libre's net Q4 revenues were $1.3 bn, a year-over-year increase of 96.9% in USD and 148.5% on an FX neutral basis. Commerce revenues increased 124.2% year-over-year reaching $872.9 mn, while Fintech revenues increased 59.5% year-over-year reaching $454.4 mn. Gross profit was $489 mn with a margin of 36.8%, compared to 45.7% in the fourth quarter of 2019. Total operating expenses were $514.2 mn, up 36% year-over-year. As a percentage of revenues, operating expenses were 38.7%, compared to 55.9% during the fourth quarter of 2019. Loss from operations was $25.1 mn, compared to a loss of $68.9 mn during the prior year. As a percentage of revenues, income from operations was -1.9%. Interest income was $22.6 mn, a 15.9% decrease year-over-year, as a result of lower interest rates in our investment as a consequence of the pandemic, mainly offset by higher interest income in Argentina due to higher float. MELI incurred $31.6 mn in financial expenses this quarter, mostly attributable to financial loans entered into 2020, mainly in Brazil and Argentina, and also incurred interest expenses from our trusts related to the factoring of our credit card receivables in Argentina.Q1 foreign currency losses of $9.9 mn mainly related to the difference between Argentina’s official exchange rate and the blue-chip swap rate at which it does stock repurchases in Argentine Pesos.

Net loss before taxes was $44.0 million, down from a loss of $63.0 million during the fourth quarter of 2019. Income tax expense was $6.6 million, driven for pre-tax gains in the Argentine segment offset by the impact of operating losses in Brazil.Net loss was $50.6 million, resulting in net loss per share of $1.02. I am publishing this after a week spent trying to find the numbers which MELI was managing.

*Algonquin Power & Utilities reported on its Q4 and 2020 in US$s except for eps numbers which are in loonies. 2020 sales were up 3% to $1.677 bn and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) at $869.5 mn, up 4%. Net earnings for the year hit $365.8 mn, up 14% but eps was only up 2% to 64¢ because of new share issues. Q4 saw sales up 12% to $492.4 mn and adjusted EBITDA up 10% to $253.1 mn. Q4 earnings hit $127 mn, up 23% and eps was 21¢, up 5%.

AQN last year made 2 major acquisitions, of Chilean ESSAL, a water and waste firm, and Ascendant Group which operates Bermuda Electric Light Co. It also began offering its customers renewable energy joint ventures mostly in solar, which resulted in the group hitting a new high for renewable construction, including some wind sites after it acquired control of a Texas-based wind operator in Nov., just in time for the blizzard. It funded these moves with 144A unsecured notes sold to US institutions.

For 2021 it estimates net earnings of 71-78 cents/sh (Canadian) but includes nothing about the weather disruption which is still in process. Its Q4 eps missed by 1 loony penny and its revenues were $30.78 mn below the consensus forecast. Adjusted EBITDA was off by $90 mn from the forecast. So the stock fell 1.55% today.

*Because Norway's currency is being boosted by its oil production, the country's green energy firm Tomra Systems, TMRAY fell 0.65% because its shares are primarily listed there.

*From India, Abimanyu updates us on Japan's Nintendo games and consoles. He writes:

“Unconfirmed reports say NTDOY will update the Switch console with a larger Samsung gaming screen which will work on a television set, something lacking in our firm's range compared to Sony and Microsoft gaming systems. Last month it made an uncharacteristic higher prediction of sales for this year, which may mean a new product ready for the 2021 holidays.”

Food

*Mexico will be the site of Wonder Brands investment of $48 mn for digitization of its products funded by Lat Am venture capital groups ALLVP and Mountain Nazca. The target is Mexico's own bakery giant, Grupo Bimbo, a Mexican-owned global company. GRBMF is $1.84 bid, 2.09 ask. GRBMF.

*Nutrien of Canada, the supplier of fertilizer and seeds, fell 0.4%. NTR.

*Orbia Advance which still trades as MXCHF, is untradeable, at $3.19 bid, $21.43 ask.

Drugs

*Astra-Zeneca and Glaxo both opened up hereafter rising in London today. However, Roche, RHHBY, and Novartis, NVS, Swiss drug majors, opened lower because of currency factors. RHHBY got FDA ok for its systemic sclerosis interstitial lung disease drug Actemra, its first biologic approval and it set a dividend of $1.28, a 3.11% yield, and now is up 0.4%.

*Smaller drug stocks are almost all in the tank: Abcellera off 6.3%; Aurinia off 5%; Compugen off 9.8%; Enlivex off 5.6%; BiolineRX off 6.5%; Grifols off 1.7%; Teva off 3.1%; Zymeworks off 3.7%. Israeli stocks often misfire on Friday when Tel Aviv is closed. Spanish GRFS later rose 1.4% despite convalescent plasma to immunize US covid-19 patients being dropped by the NIH.

Energy and materials

*BP plc is beneficiary of Opec cutting output and the US looking to boost the odds of a recovery, with its shares up 3.3% at the open today. It was tipped by Jennifer Warren in seekingalpha.com today. Royal Dutch Shell RDS-B is up 2.7% although nobody wrote it up.

*However Schlumberger Ltd, despite its new deal with Microsoft, is down 0.5% after it rose 3.92% in the London pre-market. Never predict, particularly not about the future. SLB.

*Canada Solar is back down by 8.37%. CSIQ should benefit from the switch to solar panels even if interest rates rise.

*Highflyer Energy Fuels, now with Neo Performance Materials a global refiner of rare earths, UUUU, fell 7.8% after hitting a 12 mo high yesterday. The reason may be a new safe factory form making pressurized water reactor fuel rods by Rosatom of Russia in Demitrograd.

*By announcing that it will report Mar. 11 on its Q4 and 2020, high-flyeer Earthstone Energy, ESTE, rose 5.11% to $8.42 near its 12-mo high.

*NIO crashed another 13.5% today as higher interest rates will cut car-buying. China's high forecasts for growth are not helping, because competitors will be welcomed to meet the target. It was tracking Nicola which was downgraded to neutral by JP Morgan analysts.

*Copper and aluminum prices continue upward. Platinum is lower, however.

Telcos

*The British budget offers temporary tax breaks for investments in telcos, aimed at helping British Telecom. However in fact other stocks are also buoyant: Nokia, BCE, Veolia, Vodafone—but not ERICEricsson of Sweden, I know not why.

Finance

*Banco Santander rose 2.69% today in Madrid. It opened at $3.64 and is still in the black by 1.28% now at $3.57. SAN.

*Scotiabank gained 1.53% at the opening today. BNS is Canadian.

*CBOE which is crafting an ETF to invest in bitcoins is up 6.6%.

*Trans-Siberian Gold plc has reopened its Asacha mine in the Russian Far East after a shutdown for Coronavirus. We own it via a family member's account in London as its ADR ended.

*Sumitomo is up 0.7%, SMFG. Mitsubishi is up 1.9%, MSBHF.

Funds

*SPDR Gold, GLD, is up 0.38% at $159.5 per 1/10 ounce because it never pays interest.

*Closed-end Taiwan Fund which is nearly 20% invested in Taiwan Semiconductor, the beneficiary of the shortages, fell sharply lower to $27.6 today, over 20% below its last reported net asset value. TWN.

*Cameron Brandt from Cambridge MA reports in EPFR Global that European funds saw investors exiting because of uncertainty over inoculation, yield confusion, and the US stimulus package, leading to more inflows to global and ESG funds instead. This was the longest Europe outflow since EPFR tracking began in 2007.

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William K. 3 years ago Member's comment

Intteresting and informative as always, V.L. And it seems that the news is rather encouraging as well. Thanks for the good article.