A Sell-Off Day

Yesterday was another one of those busy days in global investing, with an extra negative, because markets were tanking because Trump was escalating the trade war rhetoric against China. Given what we know about how he negotiates, this is almost certainly a tactic to force a reluctant China to give up more to keep trade flows open. Pres. Trump considers himself to be a deal-maker extraordinary and has form in these matters.

Giving him credit for how he is handling China is not the same thing as taking his side over the Russian investigation, and I compared risks from his attacks on the FBI to Nixon's obstruction of justice over Watergate. A reader cancels his sub over this. We can afford it.

The SEC investigation of uncovered short selling of American Depository Receipts by depository banks has now broadened. JP Morgan REVEALED it is under investigation for actions in 2011-2015, following the SEC publication of an investigation of short selling by Deutsche Bank's ADR arm last week.

The Bank of England raised rates to over 0.5% for the first time since the global financial crisis hit and this chopped stock prices. Markets are trending downward also over trade war concerns. I think it is faint, but I may be wrong.

*Canadian telco BCE reported on its Q2 yesterday and missed consensus for both revenues and earnings. Revenues at C$5.79 bn were up from last year but below the $5.81 bn analyst consensus. Adjusted earnings were even worse, at C$777 mn. EPS was down prior year's 89 loony cents which analysts expected it to match, at a mere 86 cents.

BCE shares fell 2.2% in US trading at the open but recovered a bit after the conference call linked the results to costs for upgrades of its network. It is getting contracts to bring the Internet to government facilities, schools, libraries, and hospitals in Alberta and a 6-yr Canada IT contract.

BCE reiterated its outlook for revenues this year rising 2-4% and EPS rising 1-4%Its adjusted cash flow (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization or EBITDA) rose 2% to $2.430 bn and its EBITDA rose 5 basis points to a comfortable 42%, thanks to higher postpaid wireless signups up over 44%. Its cheapo Lucky Mobile prepaid service is now national, and grew even baster.

This boosted cellphone revenues by 5%, of course at the cost of landlines. Broadband was also hot, with over 76% more signups, from a lower base. It is offered 4G fiberoptic TV in some provinces, starting with Manitoba.

BCE yesterday launched a 1.5 gigabit home service at Canada's fastest speed, 30% faster than rival systems (if you believe PCMag) starting in the Maritime provinces, Quebec, and Manitoba.

BCE shares fell 2.2% in US trading at the open but recovered a bit. BCE reiterated its outlook for revenues this year rising 2-4% and EPS rising 1-4%.

Credit Suisse's C. Parkinson raised some question: 1) an update on capital allocation after required equity stakes are sold; 2) whether farming inputs in the USA given agriculture trade policies; 3) how is synergy working out: 4) future phosphate outlook; 5) what about Asian contract delays; and 6) what about freight issues in Brazil? I am sticking with BCD for its 5.5% dividend and habit of raising the rate every year.

*Barclays reported a profit this Q2 vs a loss last year. The may affect our ability to continue to book a nifty divvie from its non-cumulative preferred, which can be called.

*Germany's E.On reported that it had added 50,000 retail clients there in Q2 and the stock bounced nicely so we are, Endlich (finally) in the black on the German ute stock EONGY.

Healthcare

*Mazor Robotics sank an unbelievable 18% after reporting adjusted losses for its Q2 after losing 11% pre-market. Revenues fell to $13.2 mn from prior year's $15.5 mn, nowhere near the Capital IQ consensus forecast of $17 mn. Net loss was 3 cents vs a 5 cent loss in Q2 last year but restated to $3.9 mn, up $100,000 from last year, or 7 cents/sh vs 8 cents.

The Israeli maker of surgery assist software blamed the lower prices imposed by its US distribution partner Medtronics but which helped its robotic sales rise 25% in Q2 and 32% in H1. The Medtronic arrangement was subsequent to Q2 2017. It is now being spread worldwide after starting with the US.

Other Q2 metrics also were down, gross margins to 56.1% from prior year 69.4%. However, operating expenses at $11.3 mn vs $14.6 mn a year ago reflected lower marketing costs. H1 operating losses fell to $5.3 mn from $9.6 mn in H1 2017. This is how a transition looks and the selloff is excessive. At $51.60 and pennies I would be buying more had I not already quadrupled my money.

*Canadian Nutrien reported earnings of $741 mn ($1.17/sh) and adjusted earnings of $1.48/sh, the adjustments relating to costs related to its formation via the merger of Potash with our former Agrium, share buy-backs, and compensation because of the merger, and other one-offs. It reports under IFRS but in US$s. Its costs are mostly in loonies so it gained on forex changes too. EPS even adjusted beat consensus estimates by 8 cents.

EBITDA at $1.5 bn in H1 up 10% was boosted by the retail clout AGU gave the combo with its distribution network. The biggest factor, however, was the sale of Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile, SQM, and Arab Potash of Jordan, which will provide $5 bn of funds in the course of this year but were required by competition rules. There will be more non-comparables because of the buy of Waypoint Analytical and Agrible during Q2 and more investments to come. In addition, the creation of NTR is said to have generated $246 mn in run rate synergies so far and by the end of the year will hit $350 mn.

Fertilizers sold briskly thanks to higher realized prices in North America and more overseas demand. What comes next is that the prospect of higher soybean and corn tariffs against the US will cause problems later in the current year and in 2019. Poor harvests last autumn in Russia and this spring in Argentina boosted NTR fertilizer demand YTD. NTR predicts continued US farm spending despite the trade war until the harvest, and if there is no resolution afterward "we will become more concerned," said CEO Chuck Magro. He may be right as I suggested in my opener. But I am a careful investor.

NTR revised its forecast for the full year without taking the politics into account, to EPS of $2.40-2.70 from $2.20-2.60. There are still many one-offs that may come into play later this year. The stock is up 5.4% to $57.30+. Sell half.

*Teva beat on profits but not on sales and the stock fell over 5% in European trading and 9% to $20.265 at the US opening but recovered a bit.

EPS was 78 cents vs the Capital IQ consensus of 64 cents excluding one-time items. For the half, it hit $1.71/sh. A bigger fall was in revenues fell 17.8% from the last Q2 to $4.7 bn and also missed the consensus of $4.75 bn, hit by a 29% of drip in generic sales in North America to $947 mn because of competition and a 46% drop in sales of out-of-patent Copaxone because of other generic makers competing in the multiple sclerosis space. TEVA also lost some of its own generics dominance with Concerta

Copaxone sales actually rose in Europe. Teva also was hurt by worries about its migraine drug meeting delays, but CEO Kåre Schultz says fremanezumab will get the FDA green light in mid-Sept. and will be priced to match Amgen's migraine drug price of $6000/yr per patient. Teva's drug is taken quarterly rather than monthly which may make it popular.

He also blamed write-downs for producing a loss in the GAAP earnings from Actavis and the goodwill from Rimsa (of Mexico) but backed the non-GAAP numbers. These were errors by his predecessors.

Net debt was reduced in Q2 to $30.2 bn, down $600 mn from the close of Q1, mostly because of exchange rate factors although Mr. Schultz and CFO Mike McClellan spoke of it now being only $28.4 bn. Schultz also predicted that "the bottom of the valley" for TEVA will be next year and hasn't happened yet.

Upbeat Schultz raised Teva's full-year EBITDA guidance of $5.-5.3 bn from $4.9-5.2 bn and his free cash flow forecast to $3.2-3.4 bn from $3-3.2 bn excluding capital expenditure. His EPS prediction for the full year is $2.55-2.80 vs an estimate at the end of Q1 of $2.40-2.65. His revenue guidance was $18.5-19 bn for the year, unchanged. He says the restructuring program is on schedule. This is based on streamlining the different lines into a classic regional set-up merging specialties, generics, biosimilars, and patented drug marketing. He also said there would be no late-stage acquisitions but more organic growth with the focus on biosimilars and biologics which it is building a facility for in Germany.

I had to flash between several results yesterday and may have missed something at TEVA. Appallingly, the seekingalpha.com website publishing the transcript wants me to register my shareholdings to read transcripts.

*Canadian drug startup Zymeworks will present at the Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference in Boston Aug 8-9. It was upgraded to buy from neutral at Citigroup with a $19 (US) target price and the share rose 7.3% on the news after earlier rising 10%. This stock was found by Martin Ferrera who lives in Canada and is well-connected to the City of London.

*Swiss Roche is now in the sights of the US DoJ for allegedly bribing Iraqui terrorists with drugs they could sell to get market access. This already has hit Astra-Zeneca and now also Johnson & Johnson.

*GlaxoSmithKline fell 2,5% in London.

Tech

*No comment on Apple, the billion dollar fruit.

*Tencent fell 2.55% yesterday in Hong Kong to HK$346, wiping out 2018 profits.

*Morningstar on Thursday maintained its target of $35 for BAE Systems' ADR citing the fall in its unfunded pension plan to £3 bn from £3.9 bn at end-2017. They also expect military spending and the BAESY backlog to rise from the F-35 program, Saudi spending, and global militarism. However, the rating still holds.

*IBM is linking its cloud system to CenturyLink. IBM is also launching a blockchain platform called LedgerConnect with 9 banks to become a one-stop shop for Fintech apps like knowing your customer and derivatives processing. Among the banks in the pool is Barclays.

Funds

*Eduardo Garcia writes that Fibra Uno is calling 6 Mexican bonds with effect on Aug. 9. It also declared a dividend of MPN 0.5401/sh.

*Funds around Europe are in distress and down $120 bn because they were heavily into FAANGS, especially Facebook.

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