September Industrial Production Comes In Very Strong

September’s industrial production report puts the final nail in the coffin of the notion that the US is already in recession.

I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators because, more than any other single metric, it coincides with the peaks and troughs of US economic activity as determined by the NBER. In September total production increased by 0.4%, and August was revised higher by 0.3%. Manufacturing production increased by 0.5%, and August was revised higher by 0.1%:

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Total industrial production is at an all-time high. Manufacturing is higher than at any previous level with the exception of the end of 2006 through early 2008.

Today’s report, including revisions, also reverses the decelerating trend which I noted last month, as shown by the YoY% changes:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Because this is, as I said at the outset, a coincident indicator, it does not materially change my forecast for next year. But it is good news for now.

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