For the second month in a row, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing survey tumbled more than expected, sliding from -5 to -11 (considerably worse than the small bounce to -4 expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

That is a swing from April 2022 highs in September to post-COVID lows in December.

All three component indexes were lower:

• shipments fell from −8 to −17,
• new orders decreased from −5 to −14, and
• employment edged down from 0 to −1

Worse still, the average growth rates of prices paid and prices received increased in December, and expected price changes over the next 12 months also increased slightly.

Stagflation?

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