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Following a decline of 0.9 percent in May, sales rebounded 0.6 percent in June.

Retail sales month-over-month, data from Census Department, chart by Mish

The Advance Retail Sales report for June shows a rebound in sales from a huge decline in May.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $720.1 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2024.

Total sales for the April 2025 through June 2025 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago.

The April 2025 to May 2025 percent change was unrevised from down 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent). Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from May 2025, and up 3.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 4.5 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 6.6 percent (±1.8 percent) from June 2024.

The key phrase is in italics. These are nominal sales. It’s real (inflation-adjusted) sales that feed GDP.

Month-Over-Month Percent Changes

• Total: 0.6
• Excluding Motor Vehicles 0.5
• Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.6
• Motor Vehicles: 1.2
• Food Service: 0.6
• Gas Stations: 0.0
• Nonstore: 0.4
• Food Stores: 0.5

Real Advance Retail Sales Percent Change
 

Real retail sales month-over-month, data from Census Department, chart by Mish

Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales

• Total: 0.4
• Excluding Motor Vehicles 0.2
• Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.3
• Motor Vehicles: 0.9
• Food Service: 0.3
• Gas Stations: -0.3
• Nonstore: 0.1
• Food Stores: 0.3

Those are strong numbers.

But do note that auto sales are counted when the manufacturer ships them to dealers, not when dealers sell them. And dealer inventories are rising.

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales
 

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Detail
 

It’s easy to see that the “strong consumer” is little more than strong inflation.

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Consumers spent anyway. Good luck with that.

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