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Inflation-adjusted wages fell in June. A decline in hours worked makes it worse.
 

Hourly earnings and real hourly earnings from the BLS, chart by Mish

The BLS Real Earnings report for June shows inflation-adjusted wages declined.

All Employees

• Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from May to June, seasonally adjusted.
• This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
• Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.4 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the average workweek.

Production and Nonsupervisory Workers

• Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees were unchanged from May to June, seasonally adjusted.
• This result stems from a 0.3-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
• Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.6 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek.

Real Hourly Earnings Month-Over-Month
 

Real Hourly Earnings in 2025

The real private percent changes for January through June, in order, are: 0.0, 0.0, 0.4, -0.1, 0.3, and -0.1.

The production percent changes for January through June, in order, are: -0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1, 0.2, and 0.0.

Those with a sudden propensity to annualize monthly numbers to brag about how well Trump is doing do not look so hot this month.

Real Hourly Earnings Year-Over-Year Percent Change
 

Year-over-year real wages are up 1.01 percent for all private workers and 1.30 percent for production and nonsupervisory workers.

This data has been rangebound since June of 2023.

Year-Over-Year CPI Jumps 0.3 Percentage Points to 2.7 percent

Earlier today, I reported Year-Over-Year CPI Jumps 0.3 Percentage Points to 2.7 percent

Month-over-month and year-over-year the CPI rose 0.3 percent.

Is the Next Fed Move a Cut?

I am not convinced the answer is yes, but currently I think so. Regardless, there is a wide range of outcomes including stagflation and an economic collapse.

If jobs stay firm and tariffs ignite inflation, the Fed might be temped to hike.

It’s important to understand no one knows what Trump will do with tariffs or how the market will react. That is how I see things and that is how the Fed sees it also.

Repeating past statements. There should not be a Fed. But the one thing worse than an independent Fed is one controlled by the president.

What’s With the Sudden Faith of Republicans in BLS Inflation Reports?

Yesterday, I asked What’s With the Sudden Faith of Republicans in BLS Inflation Reports?

Suddenly, MAGA supporters think inflation is low and guaranteed to stay that way.

These two BLS reports today show one hell of a lot of absurd cheerleading from some unexpected places.

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