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Since 2021, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio has published reports on global power dynamics amid evolving geopolitical and economic trends.

In particular, Dalio analyzes the future prospects of major nations, shaped by labor market forces, economic stability, and social factors. Looking ahead, many advanced economies are expected to experience slower growth as they grapple with their highest debt levels since World War II. Meanwhile, emerging markets are forecasted to achieve the strongest growth, fueled by rising productivity.

This graphic shows annualized 10-year real GDP growth projections, based on analysis from Ray Dalio’s Great Powers Index 2024.

India Leads Across Major Economies

Below, we show real GDP growth projections over the next decade, based on an assessment of 81 indicators including labor productivity, innovation, debt obligations, and education.

India ranks first among the countries analyzed, driven by robust investment, moderate workforce expansion, and low debt levels.

Notably, India’s infrastructure spending has topped $100 billion annually over the last three years. The country is projected to have the world’s third largest economy by 2027, overtaking both Japan and Germany.

As shown in the table above, three of the top five countries are in the Middle East, led by the UAE, due to high growth per worker and strong productivity.

China ranks fourth overall, with an expected 4% annual real GDP growth over the next decade. Strong productivity gains and higher growth rates per worker, compared to other major economies, are underscoring this growth.

By contrast, the U.S. ranks near the lower end, with a projected annual GDP growth of 1.4%. Constraining this growth are high debt levels, standing at 265% of GDP across the non-financial sector and government debt at 123% of GDP.

In terms of future productivity growth, the U.S. hovers around the average for major economies. Yet a key ingredient fueling America’s productivity—a substantial driver of economic growth—is its role in advancing AI and technological innovation.

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