ADP reports a modest 42,000 jobs added. The BLS report will be delayed or cancelled.
 

ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size
 

ADP October Private Job Change

• 1-19 Employees: -15,000
• 20-49 Employees: +5,000
• 25-240 Employees: -25,000
• 250-499 Employees: +3,000
• 500+ Employees: +74,000

Please consider the ADP^® National Employment Report for October

Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year. Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.

ADP Change in Employment Year-Over-Year
 

ADP Change in Employment Year-Over-Year
 

Year-Over-Year Change in Employment

• Small: -68,000
• Medium: +327,000
• Large: +836,000

This is a huge problem because small businesses are the key driver for job growth.

Current Employment by Business Size
 

ADP Employment by Size of Business
 

ADP Current Employment Breakdown

• Small: 58.5 Million (and sinking)
• Medium: 36.9 Million
• Large: 39.1 Million

Year-over-year small business employment is negative for the third consecutive month. The small business employment trend is increasingly lower for five consecutive months.

Surprised by the Small Business Drop?

If so, you shouldn’t be. Tariffs are particularly hard on small businesses who have fewer means of tariff avoidance.

This shows up in the polls as well. And it explains the dismal results on Tuesday’s elections.

For discussion, please see How Bad an Evening Did Republicans Have in Yesterday’s Elections?

Let’s discuss some election benchmarks, posted in advance.

Some dismiss the results as mid-term expected normality in blue states. Sorry, even Georgia came into play. And the margins were amazing. Voters are upset.

Tariffs are not working. The labor market is not good. And inflation is a huge problem.

All of that shows up in the polls and in Tuesday’s election.

Wait Till Next Year

Meanwhile, please note Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”

“One Big Beautiful Bill” did not resonate. Trump opts for “Wait Till 2026”.

Observation of the Day

Next year won’t happen if Republicans lose the House in the midterms based on Trump’s results on inflation, tariffs, and jobs today.

The Midterms will not be decided on whether one preferred Trump over Harris, they will be decided on jobs, inflation, housing, and gerrymandering.

All but gerrymandering look poor for Republicans.

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