E Twitter Breaks Out Anyway

First, it was fact-checking a tweet from U.S. President Donald Trump. The very legitimacy and definition of fact-checking even became an issue.

Definition of fact-check

A few days later, it was a "public interest warning" on a stern tweet from Trump directed at rioters and looters during a time of social unrest and deep national introspection. Twitter (TWTR) inserted itself into the spotlight as contentious debates rage over free speech versus the rights of companies to regulate the content that appears on their platforms. This kind of explosive political diatribe and social squabbling might seem to be bad for business. Indeed, TWTR was under pressure last week as it faded from its 200-day moving average (DMA). President Trump turned up the heat with an Executive Order aimed at undermining legal protections for social media companies. However, the selling lasted just three days. The stock found near picture-perfect support at its uptrending 20DMA. In three more days, TWTR broke out above its 200DMA again. This time the stock printed a 3-month high and an 8.2% gain. This kind of surge looks more durable than the last 200DMA breakout. A rally on bad news is good news for the stock.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Twitter (TWTR)

Source: TradingView.com

I think of this cauldron of contention as further legitimizing Twitter's place in this era's digital public forums. These controversies bring more attention and remind people of the value of the platform. There would be no controversy if there was no value and no reach. TWTR still has a ways to go to resume its pre-pandemic, post-earnings momentum. Still, this bullish breakout makes the odds a lot better.

For traders, TWTR is a buy here with a stop below the 200 DMA. There is even a lower risk options play available with a calendar call spread at the $37 strike. The approximate $0.75 price (at the time of writing) for a JUN 19 '20 / JUL 17 '20 $37 looks very cheap and has high odds of success with this kind of bullish breakout. For a TWTR investor like me, this breakout appears to vindicate sticking by TWTR during the market crash in March.

Disclosure: Long TWTR.

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Corey Gaber 1 month ago Member's comment

As much as I hate to say it, I think #Twitter owes far too much of it's sucks to #Trump! $TWTR

Dr. Duru 1 month ago Author's comment

One addendum: I should have clarified that I think $TWTR is a buy on the dip. I am adding on today's 3.7% (so far) dip.

Isaac Pomerance 1 month ago Member's comment

Hi Dr. Duru, do you see $TWTR on the rise the next few months, throughout the election process- as comparatively to other multimedia/ social media/ news companies?

Mary Connors 1 month ago Member's comment

I have to say that from a purely socially conscious perspective, I'm far more likely to invest in $TWTR over $FB. Twitter's handling of political ads and Trump's over Zuckerberg's is very telling. It really speaks volumes as to what kind of companies these are.