Today’s Session In Review

Today was overall a pretty bad day for the broader market. The US markets were under pressure as a result of a 5% drop in Crude Oil. There were many different sectors that showed relative weakness vs. SPY, of which were tech and energy. Today I was trading SPY, TSLA, and AAPL. I have a few observations for each one.

SPY

  • Right out of the gate the market was under heavy selling pressure, as the SPY fell 0.75% due to a 5% drop in oil prices. The SPY remained range-bound the rest of the day and finished $.70 off the low. I continue to have a short-term bearish stance on SPY as long as we are below the 50DMA. In addition, we are also below the 8/21 DMA, which further proves that we are in a short-term downtrend. In order for me to flip my stance to bullish, I would like to see the SPY close back above the 50DMA for 3 straight days. Until this happens, I believe that we are subject to further losses.  I currently have on a 197/200/203 put fly at $.40. I think a 200 pin is likely on SPY.

TSLA

  • Was weak in the pre-market and looked like it wanted to break below 200. I shorted the stock but was stopped out for a $1 loss. I will look to re-short on either an open below 200 or a break below 200 intra-day. For now, $200 seems like an area the bulls want to defend.

AAPL

  • I came into today long a 106/109/112 put fly at $.60. I did not expect us to fall down to $109 that quickly. AAPL is obviously broken as it is in a downward channel, which is made up of lower highs and lower lows. My original thesis was that AAPL would pin at 110, with possible downside of 108-109 (the reason I shorted the 109 puts and not the 110s). I am going to hope that AAPL ends up around 108-111 on Friday so this trade can be a multi-bagger. Right now, the trade is a coin flip. I could very well see AAPL test 105 this week if there was a breakdown in the overall market. Long-term I am still bullish on AAPL. Just short-term I do not see much momentum in the name.

 

One sector that caught my eye was the airline sector. American Airlines (AAL) came out with traffic data that was much weaker than expected, which put a damper on the whole sector. This could deliver a blow to the airline sector because many people are expecting blowout earnings due to lower oil prices. If earnings do miss, expect to see a dramatic sell-off in the broader market.

The chip sector also fell on the heels of SanDisk (SNDK) reporting a negative earnings pre-announcement. If over the next couple of weeks we start to see many misses from tech companies, I expect the market to go into correction mode. Earnings are the only thing holding up the market at this point. Overall market breath is very weak. I am not interested in going long the market (that is, for more than a quick trade here and there) until we negate the head and shoulders pattern on the SPY. 

 

     

 

Disclaimer: Always contact your financial advisor before making any financial decisions. ...

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Moon Kil Woong 10 years ago Contributor's comment

LOL, I'd be bearish on Apple just for building the biggest land based spaceship in history for a absurd amount of money. Their excuse is we have the money, Steve Jobs wanted to build it, and we have no new innovations so we might as well live in comfort while we can. Yes Steve Jobs wanted to build it, but he was smart enough not to waste the money. Obviously they are dumb enough to do it. I wonder what else he wanted to do?