The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time declined from 210k (upwardly revised from 200k) to 209k (slightly above the 205k exp), but remained near those multi-decade lows and showed no signs of labor market stress. Unadjusted claims plunged as the seasonal pain ebbed away...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

Even more impressively, continuing jobless claims tumbled to 1.827 million Americans - the lowest since Sept 2024...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

All of which confirms Powell's labor market "stabilization" view.

Under the hood, we note that despite the improvement in overall continuing claims, the 'Deep Tristate' is seeing the jobless-benefit-receiving population starting to accelerate again (and this is before a potential shutdown)...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

So with jobless claims data showing a 'strong and improving' labor market, while The Conference Board showing a labor market signals 'jobs are hard to get'...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

...is this a classic indicator of the 'no fire, no hire' economy?

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