The hit parade of negative revisions to new home sales continues.

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New home sales from commerce department, chart by Mish

Census Department Numbers

• New Home Sales: Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 714,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.4 percent (±12.8 percent) above the revised June rate of 684,000 and is 31.5 percent (±16.3 percent) above the July 2022 estimate of 543,000.
• Sales Price: The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2023 was $436,700. The average sales price was $513,000.
• For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 437,000. This represents a supply of 7.3 months at the current sales rate.

Note the margins of error in these New Home Sales reports.

New Home Sales Since 1963

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New home sales from commerce department, chart by Mish

New home sales are below where they were in 1972.

Revision Hit Parade

Here is the chart I posted last month.

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The 697 posted last month is now 684. Negative revisions have generally been the case for months.

New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction

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Homes For Sale Discussion

The Census Bureau reports 437,000 homes are “For Sale”. From that, the bureau measures “months’ supply”.

But of those 437,000 homes for sale, only 75,000 have been completed.

Builder to prospect: “See this vacant lot? We call this a home for sale.”

Month’s Supply

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Based on a fictitious number of homes for sale, we can calculate fictitious supply in months at the current rate of fictional sales, plus or minus 12 percent or so, and practically guaranteed to be heavily revised next month on top of it all.

Existing-Home Sales Dip 2.2 Percent in July, Down 16 of Last 18 Months

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Existing-home sales data from the NAR via St. Louis Fed download

Existing-home sales slipped in July as rising mortgage rates make housing prices the least affordable ever.

More By This Author:

Wages For New Hires Are Falling, But The Impact Is Negligible
Existing-Home Sales Dip 2.2 Percent In July, Down 16 Of Last 18 Months
Should the Fed Declare Defeat and Move On?