New factory orders for October were reported this morning. I normally don’t write about them, because they are very noisy, but since at the moment they are one of the few bright spots among the short leading indicators, let’s take a look.

Total new factory orders rose 1.0%. “Core” orders excluding defense and aircraft rose 0.6%:

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“Core” orders have been flat for 2 months, which may or may not portend a turning, but as you can see from the below longer term view, typically factory orders turn down or at least flatten in the months before a recession - although it’s frequently only apparent in retrospect:

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Consumer durable goods orders are also a short leading indicator. They were unchanged for the month:

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With other measures of manufacturing from the regional Feds and ISM showing pronounced weakness, it’s a little surprising that it hasn’t shown up here.

Anyway, in the interest of balance, there are still some bright spots.

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