No Stimulus Fear

Wednesday's child is full of woe. Today the indexes tried for another rally helped by good results from some financial stocks, but then fear that there will be no further stimulus took over and the indexes fell.

This did not stop some extraordinary gains from American Depositary Receipt shares in our portfolio--which in one case are panicky high.

Technology

*After JP Morgan-Chase analysts overweighted NIO, up from neutral, calling the Chinese electric vehicle-maker "a long term winner in Chinese brands" the share went up 19%--terrifyingly high given that JPM also wrote that "a rising tide lifts all boats", presumably thereby targeting rival Chinese firms. I already sold half ages ago so I am hanging in there. China's stock markets hit a new record high of over $10 trillion collectively.

*Tencent Holdings rose nearly 3% in Hong Kong today. We own two firms that have a stake, Naspers and Prosus, NPSNY, and PROSY listed in South Africa and Europe but not TCEHY which is overpriced.

It was not the only winner but certainly the most dramatic one. Mercado Libre hit a new high but MELI then fell along with other shares after Barclays rated it overweight with a target price of$1340, down from previous $1360, a trend I discussed yesterday. BofA put a buy rating on Qualcomm, a bonus share, with a TP of $165. QCOM also upped its dividend to 65 cents.

*Finnish Nokia NOK signed a 5-yr deal to move its IT infrastructure to the Google cloud but the terms were not released. It also did a deal for 5G small cells with Chunghwa of Taiwan. Both moves are expected to cut costs.

*But Infosys INFY sold too soon, boosted revenues and guidance today, rising 4.74% at the opening

Finance

*Allianz is aiming at $20 again today but fell after Wall Street did. It trades at under 11X earnings under an unsponsored ticker, ALIZY. It offers buffered ETFsand risk management services to fund advisors. It also manages our Korea Fund KF.

*New Ireland Fund IRL resumed its 5% buyback program to begin Nov. 1 for a year. The discounted shares it buys will reduce the discount from Net Asset Value.

*After the synergies of Ant Group were extolled by the current Economist it is ironic that its use of funds it manages to take up its newly issued shares was noted as a violation of rules even in China. Moreover, Evergrande which tried to raise $1 bn in new bond issues only managed to raise half of that amount. I think these pratfalls help explain the rise of NIOAnt combines credit, insurance, stock management, and lending to buy stuff.

*Fund manager and insurance firm Standard Life Aberdeen got an upgrade from HSBC to buy from hold, 2 notches. SLFPY rose 7.8% to $13.13, fodder for the superstitious.

*Bank of Nova Scotia BNS reported that in Sept. its loan book was only 5.3% at risk of deferral exposure, C$ 16.4 bn versus $39 bn in Aug. Moreover deferrals were 40% covered by insurance. It had 90% payments in personal loans, for car buying, its worst segment, but mortgage payments hit 99% of what was owed and retail and small business loads were less than half as likely to be in arrears. Its international loan delays amounted to C$8.5 bn vs $39 bn in Aug. It also announced closing of the sale of Antigua and Barbuda banks as required by their local governments. Yet Scotiabank shares fell 0.44%.

*In UK trading HSBC fell 2.8%. Standard Chartered fell 4.47%.

*The Vatican has arrested a woman who worked for Cardinal Becciu who was forced to resign by the Pope last week for financial shenanigans.

*Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior fell back after rising yesterday. It is a Panama trade finance bank owned by Ex-Im and its foreign counterparts, other banks, and retail investors. Panama uses the falling $.

Pharma

*GSK rose fractionally today but fellow Brit AZN crashed despite other Covid-19 trials also running into adverse reaction delays. The others are Johnson & Johnson and Eli Lilly.

Food

*Mexican Grupo Bimbo, a global bakery firm, saw its stock rise 8.4% today. GRBMF rose in the wake of Just Eat in Britain.

Oil

*Schlumberger Ltd SLB rose 3.3% today to over $16.22 despite lower oil prices. There is a support mechanism in place among the Dutch Antilles shareholders in the SLB family.

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William K. 3 years ago Member's comment

Interesting indeed, that just some fear that an anticipated boon would not appear has such an effect. That backs up my assertion thet the market is too much driven by emotions. And those seem to be the emotions of the chronically fearful folks, even. Those are not the folks who I would let drive on the expressway.