Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income in June 2024 is $79,090. That figure is up $780 (1.0%) from the firm's delayed estimate of $78,310 for May 2024, which in turn was up by $72 (0.1%) from its median household income estimate of $78,238 in April 2024.

We're presenting both these monthly estimates at the top of this edition of our Median Household Income series since we previously captured them in an appendix to our previous monthly report, as neither was available at the time it was published.

Motio Research's monthly estimates of median household income are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of its monthly Current Population Survey. The firm adjusts its monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation in its data, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through June 2024:

Motio Research has announced they are also now tracking the incomes for households at the 25th and 75th percentiles of the U.S. income distribution. We'll take a closer look at these new, never-before-available monthly data series in separate article later this month.

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces estimates of median household income that complement the monthly survey-based estimates produced by Motio Research. Our initial estimate of median household income in June 2024 based upon our alternate methodology is $78,119, which is $170 (0.2%) higher than our initial estimate of $77,949 for May 2024.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through June 2024. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant June 2024 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research's Household Income index:

As a complementary estimate, we expect our estimates will typically fall within three percent of the survey-based estimates like those produced by Motio Research using their methodology. Our June 2024 estimate is $971 (1.2%) below Motio Research's estimate for the month, which falls well within that range. Since we develop our estimate utilizing aggregate income and population data, which does not show a similar percentage jump as Motio Research reports for June 2024, we suspect that difference is attributable to sampling variation within the household income data collected in Census Bureau's Current Population Survey.

We won't know for sure that's the case until the aggregate income data we use to produce our median household income estimates has passed through several periods of revisions. Speaking of which, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis made small downward adjustments in the aggregate income estimates we use to produce our estimates for the months of April 2024 (-0.074%) and May 2024 (-0.133%) in its most recent data release.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 26 July 2024. Accessed: 26 July 2024.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 26 July 2024. Accessed: 26 July 2024.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 11 July 2024. Accessed: 11 July 2024.

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