Image Source: Pexels

Turbulence persists - with markets generally ignoring an historic catastrophe coming starting 'tonight' due not to outer bands as such; but the preceding big tropical storm, which a week ago was the '2nd feature' in the Caribbean. Now they almost combine; and while 'Milton' isn't 'formally' hitting until late Wed., it sort of lulled complacency since 'wobble or not' the leading 'preview' is within hours, not a day away. (Center may be Sarasota, but all Western Florida will be decimated to varying degrees. The 'Category 5 surge' is back in-play now.)

Sure, I could talk about markets, and will a bit; but this is the priority for now .. a lot of peoples lives are going to be shattered (if not already) or disrupted at minimum, and I don't mean the trivial adjustments some like me gladly accept compared to the families I've met fleeing the coastal areas to this hotel among others. This is much more significant that short-term stock market shuffling.

However, that's not to say the market isn't a bit 'distributative' for now. Look at the Oscillators and you can see that. Sure, it's 'Rocktober' but there's more of course. And no I don't believe the super-storms were 'engineered'; at least not by anything the United States did. That's the most pathetic argument made by the crowd that denies global warming, climate change throughout the world or a few other changes to the planet.

As for me, I'm unwinding at a 'new' hotel, with impact glass, a generator (but insufficient for powering all the rooms) and a rooftop restaurant and bar, that is closing needless to say. Fast fiber internet and I'll be fine. I contemplated a last minute flight out, but that wasn't feasible; plus want to be hear to inspect whatever happens (if anything) afterwards. I watched an NBC Miami weather reporter I'd seen for decades reduced to tears over fretting what's coming.

In the last few minutes I sense the storm is shuffling a bit South; but wobbles can reverse that.. or the leading 'other feature' storm could pull Milton towards the South; which would minimize damage to Tampa / St. Pete. But it's unlikely.

As to the Middle East crisis, the next most significant macro challenge, Israel has yet to respond militarily to Iran, but NBC reports it is considering striking energy facilities and I suspect nuclear capabilities (but only if the USAF has a greenlight to support.. acknowledged or not).

I might point out that CENCOM's Commander is 'in' Israel I understand; which might be safer than Tampa at the moment. The greatest risk to our Central Command HQ is the hurricane ... another concern as Milton nears Tampa.

Market X-ray: there was a mediocre 3 year Auction today; China dropped with disappointing data; but the U.S. markets recovered late. A lot of Fed-heads spoke today; but added very little new worth discussing.

I got carried away with hurricane history last night; but it's tricky assessing lots of things right now; including how S&P holds-up amidst all this..shorts have a role in elevating late comebacks like today; and they aren't getting their wish of a plunging market. I see continued roller-coaster action; with some risk of a downside woosh, but it might conclude, rather than initiate, 'Rocktober' action.

Bottom-line: 'duck & cover'. Seriously for us in Florida; not for the market as such; but risks persist. More tomorrow.

More By This Author: