A 'short-term' window (at least) prevails for the market to move higher into February's start, and then we'll re-evaluate the macro picture. However for the assorted new-era tickers within 'Global Defense', 'Space', 'Drone', 'Aviation & Border Security', etc., including 'generative AI / data-analytics apps.'; the patterns may be more correlated to 'contract awards' than overall markets.

That really summarizes where things stand, without considering geopolitics or other exogenous scenarios that can (and likely will) come along to ruffle-up a smooth rally, even if overall patterns resume after shuffles, as this week saw.

I suspect lots of aggressive traders are playing short-dated options and so on, ahead of the key earnings streams; and that's nothing we'll emphasize but do dabble in ourselves. I tend to do so in new-era tickers and not the old-guard; although it can work out for either (or none) depending on earnings guidance, even more so than earnings which will be flowing at a faster pace coming-up.

I know many consider the patterns we've had as parabolic, but I actually don't. The mostly vertical S&P action was led, as you all know, by a handful of stock leaders that I thought would be toppy, correct somewhat; then rebound. Most have. The broad market recently showed more 'oompth'; I'd like more of that.

Clearly global stability will help out; a new Fed Chairman will probably assist the lower rate desires (although that's somewhat assumed), and growth thus far is at or above expectations for the overall economy; so that helps as well. The so-called end-of-globalism is an overstatement; it's not happening simply as some media say so. I have said for years: excess globalism is bad; some of it is essential and desirable; so perhaps it seems like the median is where we're going, with more focus on re-shoring essential manufacturing to the US.

Market X-ray: this was a short 4-day week with more tension than two normal weeks. In the framework I'm glad we were able to identify intraday low points a couple times, even if the recovery moves were limited, at least only a trader or investor with zero conviction would have sold into weakness.

Now we're looking for more; both in anticipation of Federal contracts or some similar commercial deals and suspicious that upside pops loom for a couple of our preferred trading tickers; such as you saw in Redwire Friday (example).

For now you had a bit of a draw-down or squaring ahead of the weekend.

Predictably unsettled activity ahead of the weekend; should lead to reloading for an upside thrust next week; while news dependent, along the lines you are all aware of... including whether Rick Rieder is nominated as Fed-Head. I'm not sure it matters much; whoever is selected is qualified and favorable towards Wall Street and lower rates. I'm focused on 'new-era' tickers and awaiting more significant Federal contracts as well. 

Policy uncertainty (and private equity investment concerns) are out there for later in the year; and they may or may not merit attention or even materialize beyond some of the shake (such as in JPM or Blackstone) seen this week. I suspect that 'if' that's a 'real' issue it's for later this year or even next, which is not to say this year will be smooth sailing; although maybe fewer panic moves now that the world's more conditioned to how negotiating goes these days.

Most of the challenges, including Ukraine and Greenland, aren't settled cases as of yet. And next week we get Microsoft, Apple and others; so S&P roiling or rotation away from the 'old-guard' leaders may occur. Ironically 'if' they do get roiled, it might be favorable for small-cap issues, although recently it's sort of been broadly up or down concurrently, but before this week not quite that, in terms of synchronicity of the sectors. Most of that tends to be 'algorithmic'.

Bottom line: so Friday was up early and then tapered off into the weekend, as is extremely typical; and particularly reasonable given pending geopolitics as well as other issues that remain unresolved or not well clarified by officials.

Presuming no chaotic existential events I suspect more upside next week; of course with allowance for some initial efforts at dips that intraweek traders do like to get for both market maker positioning and scalping/swing entry points.

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