Macro Expectations: Betting Markets

By James Picerno of Capital Spectator

Tuesday, October 28, 2025 10:00 AM EDT

As the government shutdown drags on, the data drought follows, which makes betting markets all the more useful for gauging sentiment on the macro outlook. Here’s a quick look at how bettors are pricing expectations for several indicators and scenarios, starting with guesstimates for US consumer inflation in October, a report that may or may not see the light of day via the usual channels in Washington. Although the current estimates are the main attraction, the history of how the bets have evolved is telling as well, providing a top-down guesstimate of where the crowd is headed.

Inflation in October? (CPI YoY)